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Wednesday, October 14, 1998

Sensex may go down to 2,663 points 

K Seshadri  
The Sensex dipped to as low as 2785 on Tuesday. In so doing it has entered into an unchartered area. The index had dipped to a low of 2713 earlier on December 6, 1996.

The bear grip under which stock prices have been moving down has intensified further on Tuesday. In terms of technical analysis, the indicators have gone into the oversold region for most of the scrips on the daily and weekly charts. It has been so for quite some time now. What has come as a surprise is that no resistance has developed.

This could well be the consequence of unusual factors operating in the history of Indian stock markets - the handicapped position of UTI and FIIs and bear lobby exploiting the full advantage. With today's fall it is difficult to predict where the Sensex is headed. Reference to support levels in terms of historic chart patterns, I consider would be of limited releavance. But if one were to resort to this as a last recourse, the index could go down as low as 2663.

On BSE, ITC closed higher than its low of Rs655 at the NSE - it closed at Rs 670. HLL is steady. The other heavy weight, BHEL went down a little more towards the close after resisting at Rs 223. May be it would resist soon.

Bajaj Auto is in a similar position. Hindalco and HPCL are resisting any further serious fall. It is interesting to note that Reliance Industries touched Rs 102 but closed higher at Rs 103.45. State Bank is going down for obvious reasons and in the process pulling the Sensex down. SAIL going down under the current market circumstance cannot be helped. Tisco is in a similar situation.

The software stocks were under pressure today. While this is surprising, this could well be a reflection of the weakened position of bulls. But what is interesting to see is that even in the current market select scrips do move up. Weak players have no choice but to stay out of the market until the bottom is tested out.

Speculators will continue to have opportunities in pharma and software stocks. Special strategies have to be designed though fortaking advantage. High net worth individuals will find it easier, accumulating software and pharma stocks at every decline. This gives them the advantage of both the short and the medium term.

Copyright © 1998 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.


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