The latest cement deal in the Philippines could signal an end to a wave of foreign consolidation sweeping through the Philippine cement sector, analysts said.Southeast Asia Cement Holdings Inc said last week t had issued 988 million shares to Lafarge SA and Calumboyan Properties in return for $23 million.The deal was priced at one peso per share, a substantial premium to Southeast Asia Cement's listed shares, which closed at 41 centavos on Monday, up from 36 centavos the previous session.
Analysts said the relatively small deal hints at dwindling prospects for potential acquirers of Asian cement assets after a wave of foreign acquisitions.
"There are only a few smaller companies left," said Russel Ong, cement analyst at Anscor-Hagendorn Securities.
Asia's combination of cheap labour and high infrastructure demand has persuaded international cement companies to lose no time snapping up bargains, exploiting unprecedented access to listed cement companies trading at historical lows, said Paul McKenzie,cement analyst at Credit Lyonnais Securities Asia (CLSA). "Now you've effectively got 70 per cent of Philippine capacity controlled by foreign companies. That compares to zero percent less than 18 months ago," he said. At $23 million, the Seacem deal is small change compared with the Holderbank deal earlier this year.
In July, the world's largest cement maker HolderbankFinancier Glaruse AG Paid $123 million for Union Cement Corp, a newly formed venture controlling the Philippines' largest cement makers: Bacnotan Cement Corp, Hi Cement Corp and Davao Union Cement Corp.
In June, Britain's Blue Circle Industries Plc bought stakes in Mindanao Portland Cement Corp and Fortune Cement Corp to add to its earlier acquisition of an expanded stake in Republic Cement Corp.
The consolidation has sparked concern about an emerging cement cartel in the Philippines.
Congressman Joey Sarte Salceda, senior vice chairman of the House committees of trade,industry and economic affairs, sought a Philippine parliamentaryinvestigation last August after $450 million in deals lifted the influence of the "Big Four" to in excess of 60 per cent of Philippine cement capacity. The Big Four refers to Lafarge, Blue Circle, Holderbank and Cemex. Together with Heidelberger, they account for 60 percent of total global cement trade, Salceda said.
But Salceda's motion came late in the game. The Seacem deal suggests that not much is left for potential acquirers, who will be forced to acquire a string of assets to gain remaining market share in the Philippines, said Ong.
But smaller assets are still appealing. Acquirers believe Asia still offers much stronger long-term growth prospects for cement than developed markets, while the region's cheap labour costs suggest strong export potential, McKenzie said.
McKenzie said Indonesian cement companies can now produce and ship one metric tonne of cement to the western United States for $35, less than half the local cost of $85 per tonne.
"There is definitely an acceleration in thequantities coming out of Asia and going to the United States," said McKenzie. "The currency devaluations have made the Asian cement companies very competitive. And shipping costs have fallen."
Copyright © 1998 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.