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Monday, October 19, 1998

Commodity Briefing 

 
Taiwan to buy grains

Taiwan will pursue scattered routine US grain purchases amid caution following recent rises in world prices, Taipei traders said last week. "Soybean and corn prices rebounded last week so buyers will stay with routine deals," a Taipei-based US grain trader said. Traders said Taiwan was in market for up to 108,000 tonnes of US soybeans and corn. Taiwan's Hui Shung Group is considering tendering for a 54,000-tonne mixed shipment of US corn and soybeans, traders said. Traders said Taiwan's FGEP corn buying group was in the market for 54,000 tonnes of US corn. The Chicago November soybean contracts last closed up 23 at $5.64 US cents per bushel, the highest since July 30.

Japan grain demand may recover

Traders said last week Japan corn demand should recover to around 3.6 million tonnes in January-March after dropping about three per cent in October-December, as stocks from summer imports should be used up by end-December. Traders said purchases by importers in Japan wereslow-paced compared with their counterparts elsewhere, with some trading houses still buying for November shipment. US corn premiums have firmed in the past week, with purchases for November shipment rising to 65-66 US cents per bushel over Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) contracts, against 61-62 cents a week ago, traders said.

Palm oil prices may fall

Southeast Asian palm oil prices are expected to extend losses next week as the markets watch for fresh crop data and movements in the Indonesian rupiah, regional traders said. Malaysian palm oil prices were pressured last week by estimates of Malaysia's September palm oil output and stocks by private crop forecaster Ivan Wong. Output was estimated to have risen by seven per cent to 902,000 tonnes in September from August, while end-September stocks were pegged at 750,000 tonnes against 673,648 tonnes at end-August. Wong also estimated exports at 710,000 tonnes in September versus 759,565 tonnes in August. Wong will issue his final estimates ofSeptember crop this week, a day before the release of official Palm Oil Registration and Licensing Authority (PORLA) data.

Australian grain prices rise

Australian grains prices rose last week as some optimism returned to the market for the first time in months. But with wheat in the cross-fire of a range of conflicting influences, directions were uncertain, grains analysts said. A strong rise in the Australian dollar last week, on the surge by the Japanese yen against the US Dollar, held the rise in Australian wheat prices to less than US gains. Over the week, Sydney Futures Exchange wheat futures rose by about A$6.00 a tonne, taking the January 1999 contract to A$168.25 on Friday. Richard Alcorn of New England Agricultural Traders (NEAT) also put the rise in cash wheat at about A$5 a tonne, mainly on Chicago's rise.

Vietnam in rice deal

Vietnam's state-run Southern Food Corporation has signed a deal to sell 300,000 tonnes of rice to Indonesia on behalf of various local exporters,traders said last week. They said it was unclear when the deal was signed but that the rice would be shipped in the last quarter of this year. Officials declined to comment but a Trade Ministry document seen by Reuters showed Vietnam had already allocated quotas for the export of 300,000 tonnes of rice to Indonesia before the year-end.

Brazil may end ban on US wheat

Brazil's government has asked US officials to review draft decrees that would end the country's ban on wheat imports from the United States, blocked since 1995 because of plant diseases, sources close to the negotiations said last week. Although the ban is not expected to be lifted within the next several days, officials on both sides of the bilateral talks said they were optimistic a deal could be reached soon. "I'm optimistic that this can be done," a said US agriculture official in Brazil, who declined to be named. In an earlier interview with Reuters, Brazil's Secretary for Agricultural Protection Dr Enio Antonio Marques Pereirasaid the ban could be lifted as early as next week. Pereira was not available for comment on Friday.

Tunisia suspends olive oil exports tax

Tunisia, a leading olive oil exporter, has suspended a customs tax of 1.5 per cent on olive oil exports to try to boost sales abroad. The decision, published in the latest issue of the official gazette, said the suspension was valid until December 31. It was part of new measures decided at a cabinet meeting at the end of last month and aimed at facing increasing competition on world markets, encouraging olive oil consumption on the domestic market, reducing production costs, and improving quality through the modernisation of refiners' equipment.

Korea buyers seek soyameal

South Korean importers will continue to seek soyameal, corn and feed wheat for nearby shipments this week as they cannot delay further their purchases, traders said last week. "There will be some buying interest in soyameal, corn, feed wheat for prompt shipments," said a trader witha Seoul-based foreign grain trading firm. In the case of soyameal, local importers were likely to seek Indian origin mainly due to its attractive prices, the trader said. Indian soyameal was offered at about $160 a tonne C&F, $10 lower than those of Latin American origins, he said. Local importers have returned to Indian soyameal after strengthening their terms and conditions for quality, he said. Indian soyameal bought earlier this year was of poor quality.

Argentina corn sales up

Argentina had sold 12.461 million tonnes of 1997/98 corn as of October 9, the Agriculture Department said last week. At the same time last year, 9.195 million tonnes had been sold, the department reported. Japan was the biggest buyer with 1.55 million tonnes, while Taiwan has purchased 1.08 million tonnes, the department said.

Indonesia may cancel sugar contract

Indonesian state commodity regulator Bulog does not rule out cancelling some of the sugar and wheat contracts it has bought because of the lowdomestic consumption, a source with the agency said last week. Indonesia bought 106,000 tonnes of white, 175,000 tonnes of high polarisation raw and 235,000 tonnes of raw sugar for August-December shipment through a tender in August. It bought 745,000 tonnes of wheat in a July tender for August, October and November shipments. "We have no problem with letters of credit. There is no problem in financing, but we may delay or cancel the contracts because of uncertainty in the domestic market," said the source.

Philippines cuts harvest estimate

The Philippine agriculture department said last week third quarter estimates for unmilled rice and corn harvests were cut from earlier forecasts made in July. The estimate as of September 15 for the third quarter unmilled rice output was 1.298 million tonnes from the earlier 1.312 million tonnes, a Bureau of Agricultural Statistics memorandum to Agriculture Secretary William Dar showed. The updated forecast for corn harvest in the July to September period was1.70 million tonnes, down from the earlier estimate of 1.77 million tonnes. The government attributed the drop in third quarter grain harvests to crop infestation and insufficient rainfall due to the El Nino weather phenomenon. The Philippines has had below normal rainfall since April 1997.

Thailand rice exports to go up

Thailand, the world's top rice exporter, expects robust exports in 1999 although the volume may not hit the record 6.0 million tonnes forecast for this year, a senior industry official said last week. Vorapong Pichpongsa, president of Thai Rice Exporters' Association, said it will still be a sellers' market next year as demand is seen remaining aggressive. "The demand for rice next year will be strong but might not be as strong as this year. Indonesia's crops will be better... and Vietnam will be our major competitor," he told Reuters in an interview. (Reuters and agencies)"It will also be another good year for farmers. This year the farmers will win the first prize in thelottery. Next year, at least they will win the second prize. They might get the first prize again, depending on the baht value," he added.

The strong world demand for rice and the weaker baht have substantially raised incomes of Thailand's rice farmers this year.

Copyright © 1998 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.


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