India Business Forum

Search Button

The Indian Express

The Financial Express

Latest News

EIW

Market Indicators

Screen

Boulevard India

Celebrity Chat

Express Computers

Express Power

Letters

Advertisers Forum


Express Careers

Business Forum

Match Makers

Express Properties

Palki - Travel & Tours

Information Technology

Astrosurf

Eco-India

Dr Know

Morning Digest

Express Greeting

Graffiti

Drumbeat: Ad Buzzaar


FINANCIAL EXPRESS FRONT PAGE

Corporate

Economy

Expressions

Markets

Leisure

 

Friday, October 23, 1998

CSCE sugar ends upon modest buying 

REUTERS  
New York, Oct 22: CSCE world sugar futures closed slightly higher on modest trade buying as the market continued to languish in featureless dealings, trading sources said.

Key March sugar settled at 7.75 cents a lb, up 0.13 and in the upper half of its 7.79-7.64 cents trading range. The contract has been stuck in a range between 7.60-7.90 cents the past six sessions.

May rose 0.13 cent to 7.83 cents, July climbed 0.11 to 7.86 and the rest of the board gained 0.08 cent each.

"It closed about as boring as it could get. It's like 'Groundhog Day'," a sugar broker said, referring to a movie in which the same day is portrayed over and over again.

"We have settled into the middle of its trading range. The market is in a state of equilibrium right now. The trade buying set the tone for the market," he added.

Floor sources and sugar dealers said raws gapped higher at the opening on trade buying which drove it to its session peak at 7.79 cents.

Producer buying of May 9.00 cent call options and trade buyingof the March/May spread gave the market further support, they said.

"The call option buying translated into some buying of the futures," another dealer said.

Raws also attracted some light local shortcovering and small amounts of fund buying on the way up.

Producer pricing which kicked in when March touched 7.75 cents helped to pare the market's gains, dealers said. "We simply need news to get out of this range," a trader said.

But analysts said raws will likely continue to drift in the absence of market-moving news and the conclusion of a sugar industry dinner scheduled in London next week.

The market is still weighed down by bearish fundamentals tied to abundant supplies and poor levels of physical offtake from consumers like Russia, the world's biggest importer of sugar, industry sources said.

Russia is still in the process of considering whether to eliminate import duties of 75 per cent on raws and 45 percent on whites before they expire on December 31.

Near-term support for March sugarwill likely be found at 7.60 cents while resistance should be at the recent high of 7.95 cents and then 8.00 cents, chartists said.

The nine-day relative strength index (RSI) of March sugar stood at 54, against 49 previously.

An RSI reading of 70 or higher usually meant the market is overbought while one of 30 or less is a sign it is oversold on a short-term basis.

Volume in the CSCE sugar market remained paltry, reaching an estimated 11,366 lots, compared with the previous estimated volume of 12,921 lots.

Sugar option calls volume reached an estimated 3,740 lots compared with the previous estimated volume of 1,624 lots while puts volume touched an estimated 1,821 lots, compared with the previous 1,469.

While sugar had a fate full day, arabica coffee futures ended broadly lower on Tuesday, pressured by speculative and local selling amid weak technicals and renewed fears that Brazil's bumper crop pointed to an oversupplied market, traders said.

They said an impromptu estimate by noted privateforecaster Leon Yallouz served to remind market participants of the size of the 1998/99 coffee crop from top-producer Brazil.

Yallouz pegged the crop at 36.1 million 60-kg bags, up sharply from some 22-24 million bags the previous season and compared with a Brazilian government figure for 1998/99 of 33.95 million bags.

"The bottom line is that there is more coffee coming into the market than is needed," said Salomon Smith Barney analyst Walter Spilka. "Brazil's crop is very large and exporters are exporting huge amounts of coffee."

Benchmark December coffee fell 2.80 cents per lb on the day, to 103.95 cents, after ranging between 108.00 and 102.75 cents. Second-month March finished 2.65 cents lower, at 102.00 cents, while the rest of the board closed down 2.95 to 3.00 cents.

The December/March switch narrowed to 1.95 cents, compared with 2.10 cents at the close on Monday. New York coffee futures headed higher at the open Tuesday, as expected, echoing overnight gains in London.

The December contractrose as much as 1.25 cents, but traders said the Yallouz forecast and the December contract's inability to break above key chart resistance at 108.00 cents sparked a panicky reversal.

Downward momentum accelerated after December coffee fell below support around 105.00 cents and triggered sell-stops, they said.

"There was panic selling," said one trader. "Locals and specs just started selling when they saw it break."

Fundamentally, some traders said the Brazil's big crop and an improved 1998/99 crop in Colombia, the second biggest producer, were likely to keep futures under pressure.

But other traders said reduced 1998/99 crops in Mexico and parts of Central America and expectations of a decline in Brazilian output next season could eventually drive futures prices higher.

"There's plenty of coffee for the market this year, but fundamental information may get more positive," said Spilka. "Mexico and Central America crops are probably a bit smaller and the next Brazil crop will probably besmaller."

Despite today's downturn, the December contract remained entrenched within the last month's range between 112.00 cents and 98.75 cents, its life-of-contract low. Spilka said the sideways dealings may mean coffee prices have bottomed.

"Since September it's been in the same 14-cent range which could mean the market has seen the lows," he said. Technically, traders pegged December support at 102.50 cents, followed by 100.00 cents. Resistance was seen toward 105.00-106.00 cents, then 108.00 cents.

After Tuesday's close, CSCE report certified coffee stocks fell by 1,840 60-kg bags as of October 19, to 103,119 bags. There was no coffee pending grading.

Copyright © 1998 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.


Top


The Ambassador Group of Hotels

Global Tenders invited by MSTC

The National Stock Exchange of India (NSE)

 

Click here for a printer-friendly page Printer-friendly page

One of India's Leading Banks


The Indian Express  |  The Financial Express  |  Latest News
Screen  |  Express Investment Week  |  Market Indicators  |  Express Computers
Astrosurf  |  Eco-India  |  Travel & Tourism  |  Information Technology  |  Drumbeat: Ad Buzzaar
Advertisers Forum  |  Career India  |  Business Forum  |  Match Maker  |  Express Properties