Evidently, cotton prices remained higher during 1997-98 as compared to the prices during the last two years which witnessed the bumper cotton crop. Thus, Bengal Deshi variety was traded at an average Rs 13000 per candy during 1997-98 which was above Rs 9270 during 1996-97 and Rs 10125 during 1995-96.

Average price of V-797 around Rs 16000 per candy during 1997-98 was also above average prices Rs 13500 and Rs 11600 last two years. Similarly average price of J-34 around Rs 18000 per candy was higher than average prices at Rs 16000 last two years.

However, in case of the superior cotton varieties like Shankar, MCU-5, DCH-32 etc, the price differential was not so glaring indicating thesevarieties were not in such a short supply. Bengal Deshi crop particularly suffered last year due to pest attack in Punjab and Haryana which are major producers of this variety.

During the last year, the cotton prices flared up in January 98 on the news of lower cotton crop.

However, poor demand for cotton by the spinners led to some drop in the prices which remained subdued till April 98. It was only shrinking new arrivals after the last of the cotton pickings in April that the prices again started moving up till August 98.

By September 98, good rains and favourable weather indicated a bumper cotton crop for the next cotton year 1998-99 which exerted downward pressure on the cotton prices which started sliding down once again.

Thus the last cotton year ended taking the prices down on optimism for 1998-99.

It is interesting to note that Indian cotton prices rule independent of the international cotton situation. While New York cotton prices were at the lowest of the year at 62.39 cents per poundduring January 98, Indian cotton had flared up on the news of lower cotton crop announced by the CAB. The New York cotton was highest at 77.89 cents per pound in June 98 when Indian cotton prices also had ruled nearer the highs due to lower arrivals and pick-up in demand by the spinners.

With opening balance estimated at 30.38 lakh bales and cotton import estimated at 4 lakh bales, CAB gave estimate of total availability of cotton at 187.63 lakh bales as against 207.93 lakh bales during the last cotton year.

On the demand side too, there has been downward movement. Mill consumption is estimated to be 146 lakh bales as against 150.41 lakh bales actually consumed last year.

Non-mill consumption would be 9 lakh bales as compared to 11.86 lakh bales and SSI consumption 6.50 as against 7.89 lakh bales. The exports would be only 4 lakh bales. Thus the total outgo is estimated at 165.50 lakh bales leaving a closing stock of 22.13 lakh bales. And half of this stock is likely to be below average quality stock.