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Tuesday, October 27, 1998

Fall in FOB corn basis may push up purchases 

Ayumi Moriyama  
Tokyo, Oct 26: A decline in free on board (FOB) corn basis since last week is expected to induce purchases for January-March shipment this week, Japanese importers said on Monday.

"Importers should be willing to cover some of their demand for January-March whenever there is a chance," said a trader at a major Japanese trading house.

Japan is expected to import about 3.7 million-3.8 million tonnes of corn for feed and starch production between January and March, traders said.

Importers have so far covered about 10 to 15 percent of the demand, they said.

Purchases for the period usually start around August and end in mid-October, but the bearish outlook of the market has prompted players to wait for further declines, the trader said.

Some said Japanese traders might wait another one or two weeks.

"Importers will buy aggressively once they cover 25-30 per cent of (January-March) demand," another trader said.

Importers said one of the factors pulling down prices was a report on Friday that China hadsold 500,000 tonnes of corn for export through March to commercial traders at $105 a tonne FOB. The corn is said to be destined for South Korea, Malaysia and Sri Lanka.

"The amount is no real surprise. China is expected to export about six million tonnes of corn this year, and that amount would be difficult to achieve without large contracts for shipment to Japan," the first trader said.

The General Administration of Customs of China said on Monday the country had exported 3.46 million tonnes of corn during the first nine months of 1998.

Traders also said there was talk that China would export corn to Russia.

"Food aid from the United States would be difficult to transport by surface at this time of year because most of the ports will be frozen over. If food is to be sent by land, then it is more likely that aid would come from Europe or China," the other trader said.

Traders said there were talk that Australia might send 10 million tonnes of wheat to Russia as food aid.

"(Governments) seem eagerto export in this way as they can satisfy producers suffering from an oversupply of grains in the market as well as the humanitarian aspect of the issue," the first trader said.

The possibility Russia might need food aid emerged after the devaluation of the rouble in mid-August, which hampered the country's ability to pay for imports.

US corn premiums for January-March shipment were quoted at around 74 cents per bushel C&F over the March contract on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), against 74-75 cents a week ago, traders said.

US Gulf-Japan freight rates for January-March stood at around $14.25/$15.00, they said.

In the soybean market, importers said purchases for January shipment were expected to pick up speed in the next two weeks although demand remained sluggish compared to last year.

Premiums for US soybeans for January shipment were at 92-94 cents, traders said.

Copyright © 1998 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.


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