The precise extent of crop losses is unknown, but the size of Australia's current wheat crop is now unofficially seen closer to the 20 million tonne mark.This follows a series of weather problems which have already cut the expected size of Australia's wheat crop from one which only a couple of months ago looked like challenging the record of 23.7 million tonnes in 1996/97.

A combination of earlier rain across saturated cropping areas in northern New South Wales (NSW) and Queensland, severe frost damage in parts of the Western Australian crop and dry weather in Victoria hit the current wheat crop's prospects in thepast couple of months.

This led Australian government commodities forecaster the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics (ABARE) last week to cut 1.6 million tonnes from its previous forecast of Australia's wheat crop to 21.9 million tonnes.

Even before the latest deluge the early harvest in southern Queensland was showing significantly affected yields and quality with problems from waterlogging, disease and small-sized grain, traders and analysts said.

"If we get over 2.1 million tonnes-2.2 million tonnes from central and southern Queensland we'll probably be doing well," one trader with a large Queensland organisation said.

This compared with initial estimates of a Queensland wheat crop of 2.7 million tonnes of wheat and ABARE's latest downgraded forecast of 2.2 million tonnes for the state.

Initial weather damage caused the loss of 20-25 per cent of the Queensland crop. "With the rain on the weekend you would have to be very optimistic to believe that it did not cause furtherdamage," the regional trader said.

"Whether it's 50 per cent, I probably think that's too high. But it's too hard to call at the moment," he said.

Michael Shean, chief crop forecaster at the Australian Wheat Board, said the problem with the Queensland crop grew as more rain fell.

"Central Queensland got soaked on Sunday and on Monday then got hit again on Monday night," he said.

Agricultural futures broker Phil Lindsay of Ord Minnett Jardine Fleming Futures said on Tuesday he was receiving reports from Queensland wheat growers of "lots of damage" with some saying a quarter to half of their crops had been damaged.

Ten days of hot weather would be needed in some areas to dry crops out, he said.

Even at a crop closer to 20 million tonnes, Australia's wheat crop would be the third biggest on record, after the 23.7 million tonnes record of 1996/97 and the 22.02 million tonnes of 1983/84. The third-biggest crop so far is 18.67 million in 1984/85.