The arrivals of new crop are expected to be delayed by one and a half month a as the onset of monsoon is delayed. The primary estimates may change during the year as the prolonged monsoon in the producing centres -- Warangal and Guntur -- has damaged the turmeric crop.

According to Manubhai Shah, a leading turmeric trader and secretary of Bombay Kariana, Colour and Chemical Merchants Association the price level in the new Samvat year is expected to be higher in the near future amidst export and local demand against lower ending stocks. Production at various centres is expected to be as follows: Maharashtra 3.50 lakh bags, Erode 14 lakh bags, Duggirala 2.50 lakh bags, Nizamabad 11 lakh bags, Warangal 2.00 lakh bags and Cuddappah 2.50 lakh bags. Bags at Sangli, Nanded, Waiand Barshi in Maharashtra contain 90 kilograms each while centres at Andhra Pradesh -- Nizamabad, Cuddapah, Duggirala and Warangal -- contain 70 kilograms each. The bags sold at Erode in Tamil Nadu are filled with 65 kilograms of turmeric. Though there are no chances of a bull run in the new year as the higher price level will start diminishing by April 99 with the new crop arrivals trickling into the market, he said. This will not benefit the stockists who would want to embark upon profit booking. The merchants rolling the business on the basis of demand and supply will benefit to certain extent.

India will not face threat on the export front from its nearest competitor China as there are reports of crop being heavily damaged due to ravaging floods. Thus India will be able to retain its position as the world's largest producer and exporter of turmeric. Indian exports date back to 1805 when the East India Company exported turmeric for the first time to Britain. The permission to forward trading at Mumbaiwill stabilise the volatility in the turmeric prices. Forward Markets Commission (FMC) needs to consider the long pending demand of the traders association at Mumbai positively, he added.