In view of the heavy crop losses already suffered in Kerala, a major cardamom growing centre, and the crop losses, cardamom traders all over the country appear to be holding back most of their stocks in anticipation of higher prices very soon.

Already, cardamom auction centres across the country have registered a price increase of Rs 30 to Rs 40 per kg in last week's auction. The prices are likely to register a further rise of Rs 30 to Rs 40 very soon, sources said.

As of October 29, the cardamom prices ruled in Delhi market was in the range of Rs 490 per kg for pan variety, the lowest of varieties, and Rs 750 per kg for the very special variety. Robincolour cardamom ruled between Rs 510 and Rs 520 per kg; semi-bold between Rs 525-533; extra-bold between Rs 550-580; special between Rs 630-680 and very special at Rs 750 per kg.

Another factor attributed for the increase in cardamom prices this year is the slowdown in "supplies" from foreign markets, particularly Guatemala.

Last year, India is reported to have received something like 20 lakh kilogrammes of cardamom from the Guatemalan market through "unofficial imports."

This year India is unlikely to receive any considerable stock from the Guatemalan sources, according to market circles here.

Guatemalan cardamom has started getting higher export prices this year. This is the main reason for India not taking in Guatemalan cardamom, the sources say.

For instance, Guatemalan Robin colour cardamom which used to fetch $4 earlier has been commanding $10 per kg of late and Guatemalan bold variety which used to fetch $9 per kg earlier has started getting $15 per kg, they add.

In fact, low intake fromGuatemalan market has contributed to the increase in Indian cardamom prices, it is pointed out.

As for Indian market stock position, this season -- from August 1998 onwards till October last week -- it has already received a stock of 10 lakh kilogrammes. As against the 1997 stock position of 70 lakh kilogrammes of cardamom, this season the Indian market is expected to get a stock of 40 to 42 lakh kilogrammes, the sources add.