Exports during April-September were estimated at $16.269 billion, while the figure for the corresponding period last year was $16.820 billion. Although there is a drop in dollar terms, exports have risen in rupee terms by 12.26 per cent.

Imports during the six months are estimated at $21.260 billion, while imports for the corresponding period last year were $19.316 billion.Oil imports during the first half of the current year were $2,910.32 million, a 25.63 per cent rise over oil imports for April-September 1997. For the first half of1997, oil imports were valued at $3,913.47 million.

Non-oil imports during April-September 1998 are estimated at $18.350 billion, which is 19.13 per cent higher than the value of $15.403 billion in April-September '97. Exports during September 1998 are valued at $2.75 billion, which is 4.89 per cent lower than the level of $2.89 billion in September 1997. In rupee terms, exports were Rs 11,722.89 crore, which is 11.01 per cent higher the value of exports during September 1997.Imports during September 1998 are valued at $3.681 billion, representing a growth of 20.37 per cent over the level of $3.058 billion in September 1997.

The drop in exports in September 1998 by 4.89 per cent is attributed to a negative growth across several sectors. During the month, cotton-yarn fabrics fell by 21 per cent, engineering goods by 37 per cent, basic chemicals by 29 per cent, and electronic hardware by 55 per cent.

In the engineering sector, transport equipment fell by 25 per cent, and iron and steel fell by 30 percent. Marine products, which have been on an uptrend, slumped by 24 per cent. This is reflected in poor offtake figures of ports in Mumbai, Chennai, and Kandla.

INSIGHT
Global price fall impacts

The decline in dollar terms reflects the impact of a fall in international prices. In volume terms, exports have grown by over 2.5 per cent. This is, of course, less than satisfactory. A higher volume growth would have improved capacity utilisation in a recession-hit industry.

The 10 per cent import growth is remarkable in the face of a decline in the oil-import bill by 26 per cent. The 19 per cent spurt in non-oil imports has been exaggerated by substantial gold and silver imports. Despite this, it could be a harbinger to a recovery in industrial production.