Mumbai, Nov 11: Truck sales and freight rates have started moving up since October, signalling a revival in the industrial demand, say leading truck financiers and transport operators. "We have sold more than usual number of trucks in the last couple of weeks," said Sundaram Finance deputy managing director TT Srinivasaraghavan. Sundaram Finance is the country's largest truck financier.Confirming the trend, an official of Motor & General Finance, a Delhi-based truck-finance company, said sales had picked up since October. "The trend continues in November, too. I expect sales to gather momentum in the coming months," he said.
Truck sales and freight rates are considered a reliable barometer for a country's industrial activity. The two had dipped to their lowest levels. Freight rates have also hardened around 20 per cent since the last few weeks. An official of a large transport firm, while confirming the increase in truck rates, said rates had peaked during diwali. "Rates have definitely gone up; howeverwe can't really say these reflect the correct growth in industrial production, which has reported only 2.2 per cent growth", he said.
Sreenivasaraghavan said increase in sales was over and above the usually large takeoffs witnessed at this time of the year. He said the western region has seen higher sales than others. Sundaram Finance's 55 per cent of business comes from the south, while the rest comes from the north and the west.
However, he is not too sure whether the spurt points to an economic upturn, which everyone is talking about. "One will have to wait for two or three more months. If the trend continues, then it can be interpreted as some sort of revival in industrial activity," he said.
According to a transport operator, the increase in freight rates could be owing to a shortage of vehicles in the market and floods in the north. The rates usually shoot up if there are not enough vehicles.
For instance, the Mumbai-to-Delhi truck rates usually hover around Rs 12,000 for nine-tonne load. Owingto the shortage last month, rates to Delhi shot up to Rs 18,000. Now, the rate is reportedly pegged at Rs 12,500.
The stock markets were also abuzz with news last week that a change of course is imminent at long last. Most economy and commodity stocks, which pin their performance on overall economic demand, rallied last week after being in a bear-hug for over a month. The rally was led by Telco, with the scrip gaining nearly 20 per cent.
INSIGHT
One need not read too much in the increased offtakes for trucks during the months of October and November, much less there being any sign of an economic revival. Largely because sales do tend to pick up around these two months owing to the festive season. Further fuelling offtakes could be the recent hike in railway freight rates, which could have triggered a shift in freight tonnage from the railways to road transportation. Also, the acute shortage of wagons could be another reason for the revival of road freight rates, which could have triggered freshbuys.
Copyright © 1998 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.