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Friday, November 13, 1998

Australian bullion producers buy back gold 

Michael Byrnes  
Sydney, Nov 12: Australian gold producers have continued to buy back gold as the Australian dollar exerts a stronger impact on the market than political factors such as new tensions over Iraq.

Macquarie Bank bullion dealer Charles Perrignon puts the extent of the buy-back at between half a million and one million ounces over the past three weeks in scattered buying.

"There was definitely buying back," he told Reuters.

Australia's other leading bullion dealer Rothschilds was not immediately available for comment but Intersuisse Ltd's resources analyst Gavin Wendt said producers could be expected to be actively buying back at present levels.

The low A$460s, specifically A$465, had been a very good technical support level for gold, producing clear buying from Australia, Perrignon said.

The buy-backs, aided by a strengthening Australian dollar, were promoted by the metal's fall to recent lows, he said.

In some contrast with the recent buy-back trend, rumours of an overnight producer sale with a NewYork-based bank focused interest in the gold market on Thursday, with professionals entering the market in morning trading.

"I think it's looking neutral but positive," Macquarie's Perrignon said.

The focus on gold on Thursday switched to the impact of the Australian dollar after the release of labour force on Thursday, which showed a much larger than expected surge in employment and a fall in the jobless rate in October to an eight year low.

The dollar, which strengthened slightly after the employment figures were released then settled back into its recent groove around $0.63, showed itself a more powerful force in the Australian gold market than jitters over whether the United States might attack Iraq yet again.

Whether Iraq might became a factor in the gold market would depend on new developments, Perrignon said.

"It's the same old-same old with that situation. The market's gone through this before. It does react at stages but I don't think that's a focus at this stage," he said.

"Aussie dollargold is moving about because of the currency," he said.

Intersuisse's Wendt believes that tension over Iraq has the potential to cause ripples of demand for gold. He also points out that other world crises -- Russia, Japan and the Asian economic crisis in general -- have not gone away even though they have been forgotten for the time being.

In Thursday afternoon trade, Australian dollar gold was at A$464.89/A$466.28 an ounce after trading between A$465.71 and A$463.33. The US dollar gold price was at $293.30/293.80 after trading in a steady, narrow range. The Australian dollar was at $0.6304/$0.6309.

Perrignon sees Australian dollar gold showing some strength from good support levels in the low A$460s after the price dip from its high of more than A$505 in September.

With December a traditional slow-down period, gold seems set to basically trade its existing range. Wendt agrees.

This would cap what Perrignon sees as a fundamentally positive three months for gold, which had bounced to show some formin the $290s. This view was backed also by a rise in over-the-counter volume in recent weeks as fund activity waned, he said.

"It seems to be comfortable from a low $290 up to $298. That appears to be the preferred range at this stage and I can't see anything affecting it too dramatically at this stage," he said.

Copyright © 1998 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.


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