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Monday, November 23, 1998

Copper under pressure, likely to fall 

P Sreevalsan Menon  
Mumbai: Domestic metal markets were quite last week as most of purchases were put on hold owing to a fluctuation in LME prices. The three-month copper took some blows to close at $1,587 per tonne while zinc was showing signs of recovery. Surprisingly, most metals shrugged off the Federal Reserve interest rate by a quarter of one per cent.

Zinc was meeting resistance at $990. The metal bucked the trend to go up on Tuesday on news that Italy's Crotone trimmed output. It was also helped by heavy fund short covering for December, gaining about $14 in the process. Copper and aluminium were drifting in the rage of $2-7 on LME throughout the week.

In the domestic market, nickel prices picked up in the beginning of the week, gaining Rs 200 to go up to Rs 26,200 a quintal while it remained steady for the rest of the week. Tin was more or less stable hanged. Copper heavy scraps shed Rs 50 at Rs 10,200 a quintal while wire bars lost in similar range. Zinc was surprisingly down at Rs 6,900 a quintal though LMEadvises were strong.

On LME, both copper and aluminium were having a weak technical picture. "Copper is under pressure and may fluctuate to lose some $20-30 more," Bombay Metal Exchange president Sharad Parikh said.

Analysts said the metal was still under the threat of heavy selling by Far East countries. Sharad said the metal will trade in the range of $1,600-16,50 range.

Hindustan Copper, a major supplier in the domestic market, is going for its annual maintenance shutdown in December. But analysts said this in any way will not affect the market. "There is enough supplies to match the demand as other majors -- Sterlite and Birla Copper -- are keeping comfortable positions," Sharad Parikh said.

Traders are still concerned over the high level of LME stocks. The International Copper Study Group has, in its study, stated that it would revise its 1998 surplus estimates for copper to some 300,000 tonnes from 120,000 tonnes previously.

The metal is still dogged by the dollar weakness and fading tensionsin the Gulf, which prompted profit-taking and short covering in the early week.The short-term prospects remain bearish as doubts persisted over the health of the United States economy.

Industrial production was down for the second consecutive month with business confidence at its lowest in more than six years. However, towards the week-end the metal strengthened marginally.

Aluminium was another metal subject to heavy sideway trading. It lost $9 late last week to close at $1,299. "The metal is also under pressure and may drift early next week," analysts with a broking firm said.

Funds were active in aluminium and liquidating positions. It penetrated support at $1,320, but confined losses to just $10 mid-week.

Nickel was last quoted at $4,255 but its rise is without any enthusiasm, analysts and traders agree. The metal ended the week marginally up mostly on reports that Norilsk exports faces difficulties. Tin stayed steady for most of the week. However, as more supplies are expected to come on-warrantto LME warehouses, any surge seems short-lived.

Zinc disappointed expectations that it could rise. "Zinc was disappointing last week but will pick up this week and may gain in $10-20 range per tonne," Sharad Parikh said.

Copyright © 1998 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.


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