The duties, if confirmed, will be effective from next year. Until then the importers will have to give guarantees. It is also reported that India's export of hot rolled coils and plates from Essar, SAIL and TISCO to the US and EU are "under watch".

Faced with demand constraint within the country, the steel industry was trying to find export outlets. In stainless steel bars, rods and wires it had built up a market based on quality and price. All the effort is now being defeated as industry in EU as also the US is keen to defend its domestic turf.

At the `Stainless Steel 98' international conference organised by Indian Stainless Steel Development Association, Markus Moll of Steel & Metals Market Research, Austria, speakingon `Stainless Steel Long Products', said that stainless steel long product market will stagnate in 1999 and grow only from the year 2000 but at the rate of 3.6 per cent per annum, below the growth noticed so far. But the first quarter of 1999 could be bad.

He warned that if the mills do not see the warning signals, there could be a "blood bath," in early 1999. "Therefore we suggest to every mill (in India and anywhere else) to focus on core products where the company has an edge rather than striving to play every niche from welding wire to cold heading material and machining bars."

"Confronted with dumping suits the world over Indian stainless steel producers will be far less vulnerable to protectionism and build on their strength if they develop downstream industries. We suggest to follow the Taiwanese and Korean example and export utensils, valves, pumps and fittings, not only wire rod and bars", he said.

He said Indian producers of long products had no particular advantage over the rest of the worldproducers. They are only marginally below those of European mill, the main reason being lower labour costs. But raw materials and production yields are the "achilles heel," in India. In conversion cost, billet to bar or wire rod, the Indian mills are amongst the lowest in the world. Considering the adverse market conditions, closures of mills in India and abroad are inevitable, he said.

India produces about 100,000 tonnes of stainless steel long products out of which nearly over 25,000 tonnes find an export outlet. But the action of the US and EU and the adverse conditions in Asian markets will hurt the Indian producers.

On stainless wire exports, which are now coming under attack Raajratna Metal Industries CEO Naresh Sanghvi said in 1997-98 India produced 20356 tonnes of stainless steel wire of which 4956 was sold locally and 15400 tonnes exported. The major export markets were Europe, the US, Japan and Australia.

Now that the EU and the US market are under threat, export of wires would be greatlyaffected.

Sanghvi said the demand for stainless steel wires in India is likely to grow at seven per cent per annum compounded during the next five years. Thus demand in 1998-99 would be 5303 tonnes in 1999-2000, 6071 tonnes in 2000-01, 6496 tonnes in 2001-02 and 6951 tonnes in 2002-03.

However, the world market for stainless steel wire was very large at 908,000 tonnes. Europe consumed 286,000 tonnes, Americas 109,030 tonnes, Japan 195,000 tonnes, Asia excluding India and Japan 242,500 tonnes and others 71,000 tonnes and India 4500 tonnes.

Hence, Indian producers should make efforts to promote their sales within and outside the country through better quality and competitive prices, he said.