``Ten thousand is right around the corner as far as i'm concerned,'' said Joe Battipaglia, a Gruntal and Co analyst and one of Wall Street's biggest bulls. ``There will be those who look at 10,000 from here as too much too soon, but I'm not willing to make that call after watching the Dow's (huge rally) from the bottom,'' he added.

A move to 10,000 would be equal to a 33 per cent gain since the Dow slid below 7,500 at one point on October, 8. It would be an impressive achievement even over a full year.

``But many commentators, even upbeat ones such as Abby Joseph Cohen of Goldman Sachs and Co and Jeff Applegate of Lehman Brothers, mostly avoid mention of the 10,000-point question,'' he said.

Battipaglia pegs hisprediction to a combination of falling interest rates, tame inflation and huge demand for US stocks.

By contrast, it's the very magnitude and speed of the market's rebound, a pace most analysts say cannot be sustained, that poses the biggest obstacle.

``We are at 9,000 now. If we reach 10,000 next year at this time, that will be an 11 per cent return, which is normal for bull markets,'' said Hugh Johnson, the chief investment officer at First Albany Corp.

But if the outlook for company profits led to the plunge since the July 17 peak of 9,337.97, some analysts wondered how a move beyond that record can be rationalized so soon against a still shaky backdrop.

The global financial crises behind the summer selloff have eased, but not stabilized enough to provide a healthy environment for a Dow that started the year at 7,908, said Ned Riley, chief investment officer at Bankboston.

``While 10,000 in 1999 is very conceivable, 10,000 on a shorter-term basis would leave me concerned because it would meanthat blind optimism is prevailing, and we are getting some of it now,'' Ned Riley added.

``Three Federal Reserve interest rate cuts in two months have helped loosen the purse strings among jittery lenders and borrowers. But the credit crunch was a symptom of the crisis, not a cause. The crisis is still out there,'' Riley said.

Also working against a rise to 10,000 is that bizarre brand of psychology that's so unique to Wall Street: when it seems like the end of the world, it is time to buy. When it seems like everything is just about right, it's time to get out.

Just look at one popular gauge of market sentiment that is now flashing 57 per cent bullish and 31.6 per cent bearish. ``That may sound good, but ... That is a danger sign, a red flag starting to wave in the breeze. That type of high bullish sentiment occurs prior to a measurable selloff or a hesitation in the market,'' said Ralph Bloch, chief market analyst at Raymond James and Associates in St Petersburg.

Bloch believes the Dow can make newhighs, just not right away.``If I could make the market do my bidding, I'd take it laterally for a minimum of a month, maybe two,'' he said. ``By then, a lot of bears may come out of the woodwork and say, see, the market is stalling. This is really a rally within a bear market. That would set us up for another launching pad North,'' he added.