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Thursday, November 26, 1998

Commodity Briefing 

FE NEWS SERVICE  
Tocom precious metals easier: Yen-based palladium futures closed lower on Wednesday following New York's losses overnight, but prices ended off lows due to bargain hunting, traders said. Other precious metals futures ended mostly easier, led by the yen's firmness against the dollar, but activity lacked a clear sense of direction amid a dearth of fresh incentives, they said. Palladium futures ranged from two to 20 yen per gram lower. Benchmark October ended off two yen at 1,000 yen, after falling as low as 985 yen. "Prices extended losses in early trade, following New York's falls overnight due to Russian spot sales of palladium. But operators actively hunted for bargains when the benchmark contract was below the key 1,000 yen level," one brokerage analyst said. "Considering positive market fundamentals, 1,000 yen should continue to be a firm support level." Spot palladium was quoted at $276.00/281.00 an ounce at 0725GMT, against Tuesday's London close of $273.75/278.75.

Gold, silver seen locked inranges: European gold opened unchanged on Wednesday and is expected to trade quietly within narrow margins during the US Thanksgiving holiday, analysts said. Silver was expected to shadow gold and remain locked in its own range with a mild downside bias. Gold was seen holding within a range of $294.50/$298.00 while the US remained shut for Thanksgiving. US markets were due to shut early on Wednesday and remain closed until Monday. Dealers said strong producer selling would bite if gold tried for the $298.00 level. Dealers expected the market to shrug off news that US miner Cusac Gold was due to resume mining at its Table Mountain gold deposit. Silver was seen shadowing gold and holding in a narrow trading range. "Interest (in silver) will be even thinner over Thanksgiving. It should trace gold's moves, though silver has more potential to the downside than up," said one trader. Traders pegged nearby support at $4.85.

Yunnan Tin output up: The tin output of China's Yunnan Tin Corp rose 2.7percent year-on-year to more than 19,000 tonnes in the first 10 months of this year despite depressed prices, a company official said on Wednesday. Yunnan Tin, one of China's largest tin producers, set its tin output target at 23,000 tonnes for 1998 from last year's actual output of 21,990 tonnes, the official said. China produced 58,000 tonnes of tin in 1997, down from 71,000 tonnes in 1996 after the closure of many small producers, official media have said. China's tin prices were currently quoted around 50,000-51,000 yuan ($6,039-$6,159) per tonne, down from the 53,000 yuan in June. The price on the London Metal Exchange stood at around $5,400, down sharply from $6,210 in June. "It is still a seller's market for tin," said the company official. "The small price drop did not affect us much." Yunnan Tin's lead output jumped 21.1 percent year-on-year in the first 10 months of the year to over 9,000 tonnes, while its copper output rose 7.8 percent to 6,000 tonnes, he said.

LME copper seen movingnarrowly: London Metal Exchange (LME) copper was little changed from its late close in Wednesday pre-market trade and is expected to remain stuck in a narrow range while US markets remain closed for Thanksgiving, analysts said. Aluminium was expected to drift sideways to lower with copper in the near term, amid a market-wide lack of impetus and with dealers eyeing fresh 4/1-2-year lows at $1,282 a tonne. Copper - was seen range-bound ahead of the US Thanksgiving holiday and was expected to drift sideways into next week. US markets are due to close at 1800 GMT and remain shut until Monday. Copper continued to hold just clear of key support at $1,590 a tonne, with stops seen lurking down to $1,580 and, above the market, around the $1,600 level. Some dealers, however, expected to see some significant stocks rises in the US in the run up to December 1, when limits would be set by the LME on stocks in Californian warehouses in a bid to control premium plays.

Shanghai copper lower: Shanghai copperfutures ended moderately lower on Wednesday in light turnover due to a lack of market-moving factors, traders said. The most active March 1999 contract ended at 15,790 yuan($1,907) per tonne, down 60 yuan from Tuesday's close. It traded between 15,780 and 15,850. The February contract lost 70 yuan to 15,570 yuan. Open interest dwindled for most of the key contract months as the market drifted, traders said. Volume fell sharply to 9,928 lots from 14,480 lots on Tuesday.

Liffe grains close down: Liffe wheat futures closed between 30 pence and GBP1.00 lower Tuesday, with keen buying interest underpinning prices and reducing the impact of the stronger pound, said brokers. "There was some buying support that held the market up despite the strength of the pound," said one Liffe broker. March wheat, which with 239 lots was the most actively traded contract, closed down 30 pence on the day at GBP80.00 a metric ton. New crop prices fared worst during the day, with September wheat closing down GBP1.00 atGBP80.75 a ton. Brokers said new crop prices fell as a result of low FOB prices in these months.

Algeria buys wheat: Algeria on Tuesday bought 100,000 tonnes of optional-origin soft wheat for December-January shipment at around $140 per tonne, including freight, European grain traders said. Algeria bought the wheat in four cargoes of 25,000 tonnes each. Algeria was looking for wheat from the United states, Canada, Sweden, Argentina and Germany.

CBOT corn ends lower: Corn closed slightly lower and wheat finished flat to slightly lower at the Chicago Board of Trade Tuesday, with analysts saying that traders were liquidating positions ahead of Monday, first notice day for both corn and wheat. "We saw some liquidation today (Tuesday) ahead of first notice day Monday," said Steve Bruce, broker with ED&F Man on the CBOT floor. First notice day is the first day the holder of a long position can have the physical commodity delivered against his futures contract. Bruce added that volume was lowTuesday as traders begin to leave their offices for the Thanksgiving holiday. He said that wheat derived some strength later in the session from some technical buying. "There was a little bit of buying in wheat at the end of the session, but it still closed lower," he said.

NYCE cotton futures higher: Cotton futures on the New York Cotton Exchange settled slightly higher as speculators bought futures on friendly US cotton consumption figures, traders said. On Monday, the market ended sharply lower as speculators liquidated their December long positions on first notice day for the December contract, traders said. "Supportive to prices were some friendly consumption report figures early in the day," said a New York-based trader, who also noted that volume was light. He was referring to the cotton consumption report released early Tuesday by the US department of commerce. According to the report, stocks of cotton held by US mills totaled 585,062 bales at the end of October, down from September'sending stocks of 636,336 bales.

Tocom rubber lower: Tokyo rubber futures closed lower across the board on Wednesday, led by the dollar's fall against the yen and concerns about oversupplies, traders said. Prices ranged from 0.6 to 2.7 yen per kg lower. Newly listed benchmark May contract ended at 88.1 yen, above its opening price of 87.6 yen. "Investor demand for the May contract was not so strong. They were probably wary of investing in rubber futures due to the market's stagnation recently," one brokerage analyst. The large deliveries made at the spot contract's expiry on Tuesday also ignited worries about oversupplies and spurred long liquidation of back-month contracts, he said. In the currency market, the dollar slipped below 121 yen by late Tokyo on Wednesday, weighed down by buy-backs of the Japanese currency by overseas fund operators ahead of the US Thanksgiving holiday, currency dealers said.

Indonesian rubber stable: Indonesian rubber prices were mostly stable on Wednesday onthe back of a fresh deal, traders said. They said buyers bought tyre-grade SIR20 for January shipment at 26.38 US cents/lb fob Belawan. Offer prices hovered at 26.00 fob Jambi, Pontianak and Padang. Traders said despite the fresh deal they expected another quiet day Thursday and Friday due to the Thanksgiving holiday in the United States. Traders have also said that recent riots and clashes in Jakarta have scared buyers away from the Indonesian market because they were unsure delivery could be guaranteed. They said some buyers had turned to Malaysia for rubber even though prices were higher there.

Malaysian rubber extends losses: Lack of buying intervention from the International Natural Rubber Organisation, a lower Tokyo market and poor demand dragged down Malaysian rubber prices down at the close on Wednesday, dealers said. "The market was bearish. Some people preferred to sell their positions. There was no INRO support. Tokyo was down and demand was also poor. How to trade in this market wherethere are no clear directions?," one dealer asked. Dealers said INRO's five-day moving average price, which remains within the "may-buy" level of 172 and 183 Malaysian/Singapore cents a kg, was quoted at 174.73 cents on November 24 against 175.46 on November 23. The daily indicator price was 173.58 against 173.52. At the close, the Malaysian Rubber Board said December Int. Ones RSS buyer dropped two cents to 265 cents (70 US cents) kg and December SMR 20 buyer was down 2.5 cents at 224.50.

Copyright © 1998 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.


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