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Friday, December 4, 1998

Commodity Briefing 

FE NEWS SERVICE  
CBOT corn futures lower: Corn futures ended lower while wheat futures closed up Wednesday at the Chicago Board of Trade, as some wheat-corn spread activity took place, analysts said. Traders bought wheat and sold corn futures Wednesday after Brazil announced it had approved imports of US wheat. While that news was widely anticipated, it helped lift the wheat market, keeping March futures near key support at just under $ 2.90 per bushel. In another bullish development, Louis Drefus was a major stopper of wheat deliveries against the expiring December contract, the CBOT said. Traders interpreted that as a sign of export demand. But neither corn nor wheat made much of a rally or sell-off attempt Wednesday, and neither could follow the big gains seen across the floor in the soybean and soy meal pits. In a sign of that, nearby corn finished above key support at $2.16 per bushel. At 1330 GMT Thursday, the US Department of Agriculture will release weekly export sales. Traders expect corn sales between 250,000 and 500,000 tons. LME copper may test key support: Copper prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) are expected to test a key support at $1,550 a tonne later on Thursday due to current bearish market sentiment, traders said. An increase in LME stocks continued weighing on the copper market, he said. LME copper stocks rose another 3,675 tonnes to 515,125tonnes, the highest level since March 1994. The copper market was also puzzled about whether an expected influx of around 30,000 tonnes of copper to LME warehouses in the short-term had been widely priced into the market, he said. Copper prices fell to a fresh 11- year low of $1,556 a tonne on Wednesday.

KL tin unchanged: Malaysia's spot tin price ended unchanged at 19.95 ringgit ($5.25) a kg on Thursday after both sellers and buyers decided to close deals at the opening level, traders said. They saw an opening bid of 59 tonnes against an offer of 47 tonnes. Volume settled at 47 tonnes, compared with 58 tonnes on Wednesday with buyingonly seen from Malaysia and Europe. "The market is holding unchanged on London's steadiness. Prices should stay at around current levels in the immediate term," said a trader. The local price differential over the London Metal Exchange held unchanged at $75 a tonne premium.

MIM eyes Chinese copper smelter upgrade: Australia-based metals producer MIM Holdings Ltd on Thursday confirmed it was in talks with China's Yunnan Copper Co to upgrade a copper smelter in Gejiu City, Yunnan Province. MIM hopes to introduce its Isasmelt smelting technology to the smelter, providing it with annual production capacity of 200,000 tonnes, a MIM spokesman said. Yunnan, China's second largest copper producer, also is looking at technology provided by another Australian company, Ausmelt Ltd. A great deal of expansion had already taken place this year in China as the three leading producers, Jiangxi Copper Co, Tongling Non-Ferrous Metal Co and Yunnan Copper all boosted their capacity, helping raiseproduction.

Chinese smelters to see deficit: China's state-run non-ferrous metals mines and smelters may claw back some of their losses in the final months of 1998 and show a deficit of 1.2 billion yuan ($145 million) for the year, China Metals said. The newsletter quoted Huang Cune, deputy director of the State Bureau of Non-ferrous Metals Industry (SBNMI), as making what it called an optimistic projection based on a turnaround in recent months. After posting losses of 1.7 billion yuan in the first three quarters of this year, SBNMI enterprises lost 50 million yuan in August and 30 million in September. Huang was quoted as saying October figures were about in balance with profits seen for the final two months of the year. At the start of the year, the total losses for 1998 were projected at 500 million yuan, China Metals said.

Asia product swaps steady: Singapore oil product swaps were steady to slightly higher in early Thursday trade, following an up tick in overnight crude values, traderssaid. Overnight January Brent rose 14 cents to close at $10.38 per barrel in London, while January WTI gained 11 cents to settle at $11.24 in New York. Gas oil swaps edged slightly higher with December quoted at $11.80/$12.00 per barrel, compared with Wednesday's $11.70/$11.80. Bearish sentiment prevailed in the physical market as prices plunged to fresh 12-year lows late Wednesday with supplies still outweighing demand, traders said. They said they were banking on refinery cuts to help salvage the falling market, but so far no decision of deeper run cuts has been made.

Nymex ACCESS slightly up: Nymex ACCESS prices on Thursday morning extended the rise from New York, although overall market outlook was still bleak in the face of oversupplies. The January ACCESS contract was up six cents per barrel at$11.30 at 0420 GMT. It had settled 11 cents firmer at $11.24 in New York, receiving a late boost from comments by leading Venezuelan presidential candidate Hugo Chavez that he agreed with production cutsto lift prices. January SIMEX Brent was bid at $10.30 per barrel, looking for an offer. It closed 14 cents higher at $10.36 in London on Wednesday, after a modest rally following buying near the market close. But fundamentals remained bearish and a fall in Brent price below the $10.00 mark was possible in the short-term, traders had said. February Brent on SIMEX traded three cents lower at $10.65,after closing seven cents up at $10.68 in London.

Chinese refining capacity seen up: China's oil refining capacity is expected to reach 240 million tonnes in the year 2000, Lu Lizhu, chief engineer of the China National Chemical Planning Institute, said on Thursday. Capacity is estimated to reach 350-380 million tonnes in the year 2010, Lu said at the China Chemical Market '98 seminar in Beijing organised by IBC Asia Limited. Refineries in China processed 134.4331 million tonnes of crude in the first 10 months of this year, down 0.7 percent from the year-ago period, earlier figures showed.

US West Coastproducts fall: Prices for US West Coast product prices fell Wednesday, extending two days of declines, in response to ample supply and mixed signals from the New York futures market. Nymex January heating oil traded as low as 31.60 cent a gallon Wednesday before rebounding to 32.28 cent, a 0.53 cent gain. Front-month gasoline ended the day up 0.10 a gallon after dropping to 33.80 a gallon. But price forecasts called for further weakness due to plentiful supply. West Coast stocks, furthermore, rose by 1.1 million barrels last week to 30 million barrels, according to the American Petroleum Institute.

Australian wool indicator falls: The Australian Wool Exchange(AWEX) said on Thursday its eastern market indicator (EMI) fell three cents to 507C a kg clean at sales in Newcastle and Melbourne. AWEX said its northern indicator (Newcastle) was down one cent to 521C/kg, while its southern indicator (Melbourne) fell four cents to 495C/kg. In Melbourne, merino fleece of 19/20/21/22/23 micron was one percentcheaper with 24M 0.5 percent cheaper, while merino skirtings of 19/21M were generally unchanged with 20M one percent dearer. In Newcastle, merino fleece of 18M and finer best style was irregular, 18.5M slightly dearer, 19M unchanged, and 20M and coarser slightly cheaper. Also in Newcastle, merino skirtings of 18.5M and finer best style were unchanged, with selected lots extreme and all other descriptions unchanged. In crossbreds, 28M was one percent cheaper, 30M generally unchanged and 32M 2.5 percent cheaper in Melbourne, while unchanged in Newcastle on a limited selection.

NYCE cotton higher: Cotton futures on the New York Cotton Exchange settled higher Wednesday as funds continued to cover their short positions and locals helped support prices, traders said. Tuesday the market ended slightly higher as trade houses we re going long on the December contract during the spot month and funds were buying futures in the forward months, traders said. "It was mainly spec short-covering. Buy stops werehit on the open at around 64.5 cents (a pound, basis March). The lack of resistance at that level helped the buying moment. Locals were supporting prices, too," said a New York-based trader. "The trade was buying and selling as needed. Some option trading was noted, too," the trader said. "The market did not seem to be influenced by the latest consumption figures." He was referring to a report issued late Tuesday by the Washington-based international cotton advisory committee. According to the report, world cotton production in 1998-99 is estimated to reach 18.33 million tons, down from 20 million tons in 1997-98 while consumption is projected at 19.01 million tons, down fro 19.34 million tons in the previous year.

Rubber Conference to aid progress: Exchange of information on new developments and steps to be taken to encourage and promote international scientific progress and cooperation in Indian rubber industry will come up for discussions at the three-day international rubber conference beginningin Chennai on December 7. Conference chairman Zachariah George told a press conference here on Thursday that this was the first time that such a meet was being organised in India. The london-based International Rubber Conference Organisation (Irco) and the Calcutta-based Indian Rubber Institute are jointly organising the conference, to be inaugurated by Tamil Nadu chief minister M Karunanidhi.

Copyright © 1998 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.


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