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Monday, December 14, 1998

Copper prices may rise moderately 

P Sreevalsan Menon  
Mumbai, Dec 13: Copper, after witnessing a steady-to-easy trend, crashed below the $1,500 per tonne level late last week while other metals were quite on the London Metal Exchange. Domestic markets were not much different either as metals continued to trade in thin volumes.

Copper firmed in the beginning of the week but strong resistance at $15,40 per tonne levels did not take the red metal anywhere. Trades, through in small margins, were taking place in the shadow of huge stockpiles in LME warehouses in Singapore and Sweden. The interest in the metal was seen on cash instead of futures. The pre-market deals at $1,494 per tonne levels was perhaps the lowest in almost 12 years.

Aluminium was somewhat steady despite a heavy rise in warehouse stocks while nickel waited for a possible correction of last week's falls which was subsequently cut short by resistance around 4050. Zinc, which was attracting major demand in the last few weeks, stayed in sidelines and was seen losing momentum at $993 per tonne.However, towards the week-end, the metal moved up amid short covering buoyed by tight physical supply. Lead again failed to build up on small pre-market advances.

LME copper was always in the shadow of the last week's hefty decline that pulled the red metal down to an 11-year low. Traders said they were witnessing more interest on the sell side.

Aluminium came under pressure as the contract futures were exposed to further downward pressures.

The plight of metal companies is still continuing. Mitsui Co Ltd has decided to get out of the South African zinc smelter project, raising serious concern over the future of trade in the coming years. Mitsui and group company, Mitsui Mining & Smelting Co Ltd, Japan's largest zinc producer, had a 24.5 per cent share of the undertaking.

Yet there is no sign of any output cuts. Most of the analysts are expecting most other base metals drift down behind copper, with aluminium and lead crashing further. Most of them are clueless about the support levels of each metals."It is quite difficult to put up a support figures," says a Mumbai trader.

Copper is expected to go up moderately next week as the metal seems to be highly oversold. Hopes are that producers will go ahead with production cuts to save the prices but it could be long before the current stockpiles can be fully absorbed.

Copyright © 1998 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.


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