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Tuesday, December 15, 1998

Asian rubber unlikely to benefit from Inro intervention 

REUTERS  
SINGAPORE, DEC 14: The International Natural Rubber Organisation (Inro) is expected to continue its intervention this week to lift Asia's sagging rubber prices, but the help would be only marginal, regional traders said on Monday.

"Inro has to intervene because prices are still below the must-buy level, but once prices climb above that level, it stops," said a Singapore trader.

"This will only keep prices above certain levels but will not push the market up," she added.

On Monday, Inro sought fresh offers of SMR20 rubber in Malaysia for January/February shipment, as well as offers in Thailand and Indonesia, traders said.

"Unless Inro raises its must-buy and may-buy levels, I don't think we will see major gains from Inro's buying," said another Singapore trader.

Inro, which groups six rubber producing countries and 17 consuming countries, buys and sells at set levels to stabilise rubber prices.

The average price was quoted at 169.17 Malaysian/Singapore cents a kg on December 10.

"There is nodifference between 169 cents and 172 cents in such a bearish market," the second Singapore trader said.

Thailand, the world's largest rubber producer, and Malaysia, the third largest, have complained Inro's market intervention levels to buy stockpile rubber are too low and should be raised.

Most traders were convinced Inro would still be active this week after it bought in Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia last week.

"The average price is still below the 'must-buy' level and Inro is likely to intervene this week," said a Malaysian dealer at a broking firm.

"But the amount was so small it barely boosted the rubber price," said a trader in Thailand's southern Hat Yai of the Inro intervention last week.

Traders said fundamentally the market remained bearish as major European consumers had covered their nearby positions, and some even had covered their positions for the first quarter.

Demand from crisis-hit Asia was unlikely to pick up due to a slump in the car industry in almost all Asian countries,they said. "Some Europeans had already completed their yearly buying programmes," said the Malaysian trader.

Malaysia has decided to leave Inro despite the rubber body intervening in the market in recent months to support prices. Thailand said it would decide whether to follow suit at a later date. Indonesia, the third largest rubber producer, will stay with the world body.

Inro would collapse if both Malaysia and Thailand leave, analysts have said.

Copyright © 1998 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.


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