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Thursday, December 17, 1998

All the PM's men 

 
The reports of the prime minister's advisors--reputed businessmen all--are on predictable lines: their focus is on privatisation and corporatisation with a view to making public sector entities manageable, efficient and transparent in their working. Thus, 25 per cent of DoT's equity should be divested; major ports should be corporatised; the government should dilute its stake in banks, financial institutions and insurance companies and aggressively disinvest PSU equity. There will be no quarrel with the recommendations per se. The trouble is that the ground reality is dismal. The Rs 5,000-crore annual PSU equity disinvestment target has eluded the central budget year after year. In 1998-99, after all the talk about selling PSU shares at a discount, the government is no where near getting the market interested in its offerings.

In desperation, it has reportedly decided to get financial institutions to pick up Rs 5,000 crore of equity in two oil companies, one aluminium company and a telecom major. They willallocate the shares among themselves at a discount to the market. But these days, after every rise, the market quickly brings down share prices. In effect, forced PSU disinvestment to fill the hole in the budget means burdening the FIs with unwanted equity.

Conceivably, the market will see better times. FIs could sell the PSU equity at a profit (to be shared with the government) in the not too distant future. But mega disinvestment year after year--in PSUs, DoT, ports, FIs, banks, insurance, etc,--is bound to create an oversupply. And if PSU share prices go really cheap, relative prices of private sector shares in the secondary markets cannot but sag. The disinvestment route to reform is unlikely to click in the foreseeable future. This will block FIs' funds in PSU paper at the expense of lendings to the real sector.

Cliches are of no use to hard-headed businessmen. One advisory group wants the government to swap PSUs' debt into equity to strengthen their balance sheets. This will make their equitysaleable. There is also an ambiguous reference to dual nationality type schemes; this could mean sale of PSU equity to foreign buyers. Swadeshi dismay apart, there is merit in the proposal, for disinvestment would then attract foreign funds, and free domestic savings for new investment. Astonishingly, the PM's advisors have been coy about the on-going slack in private investment. There are no ideas on getting back investors who have fled the primary market en masse. Mutual funds are promising them safe investment in government securities!

Copyright © 1998 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.


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