NEW YORK, Dec 22: CSCE Arabica coffee futures ended firmer in seesaw trading on Tuesday, lifted by speculative shortcovering and light roaster buying. And CSCE cocoa futures ended sharply higher in moderate trading, as the market continued to bounce back from life-of-contract lows set on Monday, traders said.Benchmark March coffee rose 0.60 cent per lb on the day, to 116.05 cents, after ranging between 117.70 and 114.25 cents. Second-month May ended 1.00 cent higher, at 117.00 cents, while the rest of the board gained 1.25 to 2.30 cents.
"It was very choppy," said one broker. "But really, there was nothing going on, the holiday mode is setting in."
While coffee prices traded on both sides of unchanged during the session, some traders said the balance was tipped to the upside following news the Brazilian government approved the rollover of coffee growers' debt payments until June 30, 1999. "The rollover of credits was not bullish, it was expected, but it was good support for the market because now theproducers can hold inventories. They don't have to sell," said another trader.
Many traders had reckoned Brazilian producers would have been forced to sell coffee to pay back the debts had the National Monetary Council not approved the extension of payments, which had already been postponed until the end of December.
With a today's Brazil news and a number of estimates -- including a Brazilian government 1999-2000 crop forecast and the USDA's global 1998-1999 production forecast -- out of the way, traders views on market direction were mixed. Some traders said expectations for a sharp downturn in Brazilian output next season was likely to underpin prices. The Brazilian industry and commerce minister said Monday that 1999/2000 coffee production is expected to reach 23.15 million 60-kg bags, down sharply from 34.55 million bags turned out in 1998/99.
"The Brazil estimate is supportive," said a trader. "It is a confirmation of a sharp reduction in production next year."
However, many other industryparticipants viewed the Brazil figure with skepticism. Merrill Lynch analyst Judith Ganes in an outlook that while some estimates suggest a Brazil crop as low as 22-24 million bags, "we tend to think the preliminary figures are overstating the potential crop loss." "What needs to be taken into consideration as well is the tremendous number of new and more densely planted trees undertaken when prices had skyrocketed and replanted following the frosts earlier in the decade.
We believe a more realistic production figure is probably between 27-30 million bags." In addition, bears continued to point to an sharp increase in the fund net long position. CFTC data released Friday showed that non-commercials, or funds, held a net long position of 8,149 lots as of December 15, up from a net long position of 1,653 lots two weeks ago. "The fund position is too long," said a trader. "And soon the fundamentals are going to take over because there's going to be a lot of new-crop coffee coming in from Central America andMexico." Technically, traders said March resistance was seen at 118.00 cents, followed by 120.00 cents. Support was pegged at 114.00-113.00 cents. After Tuesday's close, CSCE reported certified coffee stocks were unchanged as of December 21, at 87,915 60-kg bags. There were 750 bags pending grading, the exchange said.
Final volume reached an estimated 5,894 lots.
Meanwhile CSCE cocoa futures ended sharply higher in moderate trading on Tuesday, as the market continued to bounce back from life-of-contract lows set on Monday, traders said.
They said speculative shortcovering accounted for much of the day's upturn, with a late rush of fund profit-taking propelling the benchmark March contract past chart resistance at $1,419 per tonne to an intra-day high of $1,422.
March cocoa finished just beneath the high at $1,421, up $28. March posted at low of $1,397. Second-month May ended $24 higher, at $1,440, while the rest of the board gained $25.
"There was fund shortcovering," said one trader. "It's comingto the end of the month, the end of the quarter and the end of the year, so realizing some profits is not a bad idea." New York cocoa futures headed higher from the open on Tuesday, on the heels of overnight gains in London and amid positive sentiment following CSCE's finish with pared losses on Monday.
Strength in commodities overall also lifted sentiment in cocoa, New York traders said. The Commodity Research Bureau index was up nearly .5 per cent as of 1453 EST, to 189.20, bouncing back from a new 21-year low touched on Monday.
"London opened higher and stayed higher and that helped New York," said another trader. "Another source of inspiration was the CRB." While today's strong close was viewed as position, traders were reluctant to call an end to the downtrend. Technically, they said the March contract would face key resistance at a chart gap between $1,445 and $1,448.
"It's been oversold quite a while and it corrected," said a trader. "Now the real test is $1,445-$1,448, and it needs to closeabove $1,450.
On the downside, support was seen toward $1,400. Volume on the day reached an estimated 6,544 lots. CSCE is a subsidiary of the New York Board of Trade.
Copyright © 1998 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.