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Friday, December 25, 1998

Outlook positive, avoid shortselling 

Deepak Singh Tanwar  
With the weekly gain of 88 points, the sensex has further strengthened its position. While the pivotals more or less showed a mixed trend during the week, it was the Tata group companies which stole the limelight. Tata Steel, Telco and Tata Tea were star performers. Gains on these counters was supported by high volumes.

Although the short-term position of Hindustan Lever is not very attractive, the formation of a higher bottom puts the sensex in a positive prospective. While the position of daily chart is encouraging, the weekly chart appears very positive and strictly suggests that short selling should be clearly avoided, at least in the next two days. The position of oscillators also favours a positive outlook.

The rally, which is likely in the next few days, is expected to be triggered by side counters like Bhel, Castrol, Tisco, Telco, or to some extent ITC. For a good bull run, ITC needs to cross three major levels of Rs 710, Rs 725 and Rs 740 respectively. The position of Reliance and State Bankshould be considered favourable but these counters are unlikely to lead the rally. Bajaj Auto and MTNL are expected to remain weak. Overall, the market outlook is positive and if the sensex manages to cross the 3030 level, then the target of 3266 points will not be a big problem. As such, short position should be avoided.

A sharp rally on Tata counters has put all these stocks into a bull orbit. Tata Tea has moved above all the major resistance levels and is all set to head towards Rs 400 mark in the medium term. The position of Telco is equally bullish. The medium term target for this stock could be placed at Rs 217 which is the next major resistance level. For Tisco however, the first resistance is very close at Rs 116 but looking at the force at which the stock is moving up, the chances of crossing this resistance are bright. Overall, investment is advised on every decline on these counters. Voltas has also entered into a new bull orbit and appears attractive on every decline.

Besides Tata companiesstock, Pentafour Software and Satyam Computers have also performed well. Satyam is in new territory and is expected to remain bullish in the near future. Other software stocks which are expected to post further gains are Silverline, BFL Software and Rolta.

Stocks like Arvind Mills, Ashok Leyland, Bombay Dyeing, Century Textile, Colgate Palmolive, HDFC Bank, LML, L&T, Reckitt & Coleman, SPIC and Voltas are expected to remain bullish.

Copyright © 1998 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.


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