The same trend is likely to translate into the portals of the Coffee Futures Exchange India Ltd (Cofei) shortly taking into consideration the prevailing conditions at the bourse, according to industry analysts.

``The much-touted activities of Cofei has never helped the industry to garner the expected prices. The wait and watch policy adopted by the growers and exporters has reached a standstill at the bourse,'' said Cofico Agencies director S Ravichandran.

A section of leading exporters in Bangalore alleged that the growers are still hoarding their stock expecting a drastic hike in world coffee prices in the coming weeks, especially as there are talks of the Brazilian crop being affectedby blight. In fact, Coffee Board chairman SV Ranganath had painted a bearish trend in coffee prices for the next five years.

According to Cofei trading report for December 17, the quoted price for Plantation A variety is Rs 98 per kg for January 99 contracts, Rs 96.50 for March 99, Rs 97.35 for May 99 and Rs 97.85 for July 99. The price at Cofei for robusta cherry AB variety for January 99 is Rs 75.40 per kg, while the quoted price of robusta variety at London exchange for January 99 was about Rs 82 a kg ($1944 per tonne).

The taste of free market has never encouraged the coffee growers to increase the total area under production. The urbanisation and escalation in the costs of inputs and labour have forced the new entrepreneurs to go slow with their plans for augmenting the area under coffee production.

According to Coffee Board database, the area under coffee production is almost stagnant during the last few years. During 1995-96 the coffee bearing area in India was about 242,000 hectares which hasnot increased even after the dismantle of pooling system.

However, the growth of robusta both in terms of area and production is generally higher than that of arabica in the last 10 years. The increase in robusta production can be attributed to more intensive cultivation, introduction of irrigation by more small growers and the availability of funds ploughed back into the property with the increase in coffee prices in the last few years, according to Bombay Burmah Trading Corporation Ltd vice president CS Machia.

Reacting to the Coffee (Amendment) Bill 98, some growers said: ``Domestic consumption of coffee will definitely get a fillip once the provisions of the new Bill come into place. A strong domestic market will help us realise better export prices. ``We are sure that the Board would take steps to propagate the coffee culture,'' said Venkitesh, a leading coffee planter from Hassan.

``The plan to hike the cess on exports from 0.50 paise to Rs 1 per kg is not in the interest of the growers. Thegrowers often have to spend huge amounts to get adequate returns. The cess hike will have a negative impact on our realisation,'' say a section of growers.

Growers felt that the free sale quota (FSQ) system has had its drawbacks. The Board has become a monitoring agency and the domestic promotion plan of the Board is yet to take off. The only ray of hope the growers expect is that an array of calamities in other coffee producing countries. ``The shortage in coffee production due to calamities in leading producing countries has helped growers in a big way,'' said officials in Cofifed.