Mumbai: Base metals, especially copper and aluminium have been under bear grip for almost two years. Last week, while copper touched a low of $1,440 per tonne, aluminium dipped to $1,216 per tonne respectively.The latest fall has further weakened the long term prospects for these metals. However, the technical position of chart suggest that a rally is most likely from the current levels.
Copper: As it can be seen in the above chart, copper had strong support at around $1,550 level. But it failed to remain above this level and dropped more than 15 per cent from this level. Now, the level of $1550 which was a support level would act as a resistance in the near future.
In the past, whenever such a sharp has occurred, it has been followed by a equally sharp rally. The current position also hints at rally. An expected rally can last up to a level of $1550. But this does not mean that copper has bottomed out and will head northward. The rally, which is expected to take place within the next two weeks,however will not be sustained. The recent fall has badly affected the oscillators position. The 21-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has touched a 2-year low last week. For a divergence which is likely, the metal needs to post a lower bottom after a rally or double bottom. And for a medium term bullish trend, the metal needs to post higher bottom and cross the $1,550 level.
Aluminium: The story of aluminium is no different. Like copper, the white metal is also in bearish mode for the past two years. The recent fall although was not as steep as of copper, but it did dip below an important support level. The white metal had good support at $1260.
Last week, it fell to $1216 level. As the short-term RSI has formed positive divergence, a rally in the case of aluminium also likely. But similar to copper, rally will not be sustained. The white metal is likely to move in a narrow range after a short-term rally and move in the range of $1200-1250 per tonne.
Copyright © 1998 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.