On New Year's eve, prospects of big bucks flowing into infrastructure development seem bullish. Actually, the prospects of funds flowing into power generation units, oil exploration, steel, cement and coal production, are as good as they were on New Year's eve last year, when ``infrastructure industries'' seemed to lead economic growth.

``Infrastructure industries'' achieved a 4.6 per cent growth in output during 1997-98, when manufacturing units only managed to augment production by 3.6 per cent and agricultural output declined by 2.6 per cent. Amongthe ``infrastructure industries,'' electricity generation alone demonstrated an output growth of 6.8 per cent.

The 12 months in between then and now and all the political bickering over the economic reforms that went on since, were like a blink in Rip Van Winkle's life, a year of nothing.

The economic reforms begun in 1991 had just about gathered speed and foreign direct investment (FDI) had done a 19 per cent leap-frog to $ 3.2 billion from $ 2.7 billion in 1996-97, when the bugle sounded at the Centre for another change of guard. The Bharatiya Janata Party-led coalition donned the crown and unfurled a National Agenda for Governance, that spoke of the ``human face'' of the reforms.

In April the multi-party coalition, still wet behind the ears, said it would review all the approvals given to new projects. The saffron rag was out and the much-wooed private sector promoter of infrastructure projects began to buck.

The fresh guidelines on foreign equity holding in domestic airlines issued by theDirectorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) in June, had very little to add to the civil aviation policy of 1997. It did help to keep the Tatas out of the Indian skies though. Civil aviation minister, Ananth Kumar, used the DGCA guidelines as an excuse to put off a decision on the project.

The Foreign Investment Promotion Board (FIPB) deferred a decision on the Tata Airline four times, at the request of the civil aviation ministry. The Tatas finally withdrew the proposal and group chairman Ratan Tata, alleged that ``vested interests'' had put a spoke in his wheel. The Tatas also pulled out of the Tata-Raytheon international airport project in Bangalore. In a letter to the FIPB subsequently, they alleged preferential treatment to Jet Airways. A speck of a cloud in the open skies ?

An attempt by the two national carriers to fly high and free ended in a crash landing on December 11, when the civil aviation ministry sacked the joint board of Air India and Indian Airlines. The only silver lining now is AnanthKumar's promise to disinvest in the two national carriers. If he keeps that promise, Indian Airlines and Air India may become masters of their own destiny someday.

Yet the new government took to the roof tops like its predecessors, singing out policies designed to woo investment into infrastructure-building. Foreign investment norms for roadways and ports were made easier still, but the mega expressway (that will run across the length and breadth of the country) was only announced at the fag end of the year.

The Internet Service Providers (ISP) policy was announced in January, but the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI) challenged the Department of Telecom's (DOT) right to make policy decisions then. The revised policy, designed to end Videsh Sanchar Nigam Limited's monopoly and usher in private internet providers, only came 10 months later in November.

Throughout the year telecom companies offering cellular services, were bled by the stiff licence fees, begged for a moratorium, but were givenan extension of the licence period instead. Most of the companies are expected to default in paying licence fees for the third year, at the end of the December 31 deadline and many will show dipping bottomlines at the end of the fiscal.

The Centre announced a Group on Telecom in November, to spin out a new national telecom policy. The group has three DOT representatives and none from industry and the TRAI. Sops for liquid fuel-based power plants, expected to add 36,000 MW to the country's electricity-generating capacity and counter-guarantees for three more fast-track projects were announced in July. The security of investment that promoters were looking for, however, only came in November, in the form of the ``mega power policy.'' The policy assured payment to power producers from a central nodal agency called the Power Trading Corporation.

The result ? Nine months in office later power minister P. R. Kumaramangalam can only boast of one project having achieved financial closure of the 165liquid-fuel-based power plants proposed. The three fast-track projects (of the six that have counter-guarantees so far) are still struggling with loose ends like fuel supply agreements.

Petroleum and natural gas minister V. K. Ramamurthy can brag of a lot achieved in the way of reforms, like freeing oil prices (to an extent) and repaying half the dues of oil companies. The administered price dismantling programme was not without its tangles with the saffron banner, though.

Subsidies on kerosene and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) were not rolled back on schedule on April 1. Ramamurthy has now gone on record, saying that the deadline for a decision on the subsidies was March 31 next year. In saying so, he joins the ranks of all his compatriots, who have run a full circle round the reforms to land on square one at the end.

Ramamurthy did demonstrate promptitude in approving all the 18 pending production sharing contracts for oil exploration in July. The nod came exactly two months after the Pokhran blastand along with a lot of other approvals for foreign direct investment proposals. The hornets nest resting in the 12 oilfields discovered by national oil companies and offered to the private sector, has been discreetly left undisturbed, however.

Even so, the New Year promises to be merrier than the last. Perhaps 1999 will be more prosperous as well, now that the close examination of projects and policies is through and the new Masters are as concerned about the fiscal deficit as the old ones. Concerned enough to keep red rags away from the bulls, that is.

(with inputs from Aparna Kalra, Anupma Airy and Neeraj Saxena)