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Friday, January 1, 1999

After the windfall, there's still some steam left 

Sanjay Sardana  
New Delhi, Dec 31: It's been a year of technology, takeover, pharmaceuticals and turnaround stocks. The scrips in these sectors proved to be a goldmine for investors in 1998 and have outperformed the market by a huge margin. The gains have been mindboggling, considering the overall bearish sentimnent which prevailed during the year gone by. Among the top 50 in terms of returns, 17 scrips belonged to the software sector and another 13 were pharmaceuticals, FMCG and agrochemical sector.

The rally may not be over yet in some of these counters. Pharmaceutical stocks, especially the multinational stocks after a temporary setback are ripe for picking again. The Patents Bill is expected to be passed in the next couple of months which could drive these stock to new highs again. Similarly, software stocks, ahead of their third quarter and full year performance could certainly provide another investment opportunity to the investors. Apart from the stocks in these two sectors, stocks belonging to the core sectorslike cement, steel, power and power equipment, construction and steel could be worth investing in 1999.

HCL Infosystems topped the charts in 1998 by registering a whoppinmg gain of over 1060 per cent in a years time. The scrip has shot up from Rs 24 on December 31 last year to the current level of Rs 290 and touched a high of Rs 330 in 1998. BFL Software and Square D Software followed with gains of around 1000 per cent and 750 per cent respectively. Apart from the overall bullish sentiment in the software stocks, individual events too helped in boosting the sentiment.

Takeover added fizz to these stocks as in the case of BFL Software which was taken over by ING Barrings. Similarly, expectations of takeover/equity placement with foreign institutions in the case of DSQ Software pushed the stock to new highs.

Another takeover story, Rassi Cements was the only cement stock to figure among the top 50 gainers of 1998. Zee Telefilms was another clear outperformer with the scrip frequently figuring among thetop five volume charts. The merger talks with Star led to heavy speculative activity in teh counter and the news has not been confirmed yet. The scrip during the year zoomed from its December 1997 level of Rs 116 to its yearly high of Rs 747 to settle at Rs 647 at the close of 1998.

Voltas may well be termed as the turnaround story of the year as the company from the Tata's stable bounced back strongly after reporting a loss of Rs 16 crore and Rs 9.5 crore in the past two years. The company bounced back with a net profit of Rs 1.8 crore for the first half ended September 1998. The market too has been quick to spot this winner and the scrip has risen from last December's low of Rs 25 to the current level of Rs 120. Led by a flurry of acquisitions and takeovers in the overseas markets, the stocks belonging to the pharmaceutical, FMCG and agrochemcal sector were also the starperformers of the year gone by. Apart from the global mergers, the Patents Bill providing exclusive marketing rights to MNCs drovethese stocks to new highs. However, a dissapointment of the bill not being passed in the Parliament pushed the stocks marginally down. There seems to be no looking back for software stocks and they look set for another round of rally after a subdued second half of 1998. Although the software stocks, ahead of their Q3 results, flared up towards the fag end of 1998, these stocks have a long way to go. The fund managers are not warry of the high price earning multiples of these stocks. Instead, they are looking at the brighter side of healthy bottomline growth these companies are capable of announcing. The third quarter results are round the corner and the market is yet again looking forward to a sterling performance from the software companies. Investors have been quick to log on to these stocks to reap quick gains. Apart from expectations of exceptional growth in the earnings, the overall revival in the market sentiment coupled with the company specific factors, too, have renewed an interest in the softwarestocks. The software sector is yet again expected to repeat the performance with an average growth in earnings of around 70-100 per cent.

The traditional market favourites have proved to be a nightmare for investors. The market favourites of yesteryears, Reliance, Telco, State Bank, ACC, BSES, Grasim Industries, Tata Chemicals and Hindalco have proved to be a drag on their investment and during the year 1998, these scrips gave negative returns. Not only have they lost their sheen, a few of them have even been hammered down to their historic lows.

Reliance during the past year after going ex-bonus in late 1997 has failed to bounce back to its ex-bonus price of Rs 200. After going ex-bonus at around Rs 200, it has been on a consistent slide and touched a low of around Rs 100 before bouncing back towards the fag end of 1998 to around Rs 120. On a point-to-point basis, Reliance has lost more than 20 per cent. State bank at Rs 160 is down almost 30 per cent from its December 1997-level of Rs 238.

The bankingas well as the stocks of Indian financial institutions witnessed a free fall in 1998 and touched their nadir. These scrips after witnessing a free fall have failed to look up and are going cheap with attractive dividend yields. IDBI has been among the worst sufferers in group A of BSE of 1998 and the scrip with the growing NPAs has been hammered down to Rs 37 from its last years level of Rs 80. IFCI too is down at Rs 17 from the last year's level of Rs 30.

Copyright © 1999 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.


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