``I would expect exporters to maintain export levels or increase them because of their current increased profitability,'' said analyst Tatyana Nikolskaya at Pioneer Securities in Moscow.

``It would be stupid to cut exports right now when the rouble is depreciating, and as the depreciation is expected to continue to the end of next year, they will probably be strong until then,'' she added.

Exports of metals and the other key commodities, oil and gas, form the backbone of Russia's hard currency earnings. Sales of these raw materials usually account for 70 per cent of export revenues, although low oil prices are now shifting the balance.

But metals prices are also low. This is forcing Russian exporters to keep sales as high as possible to maintain revenues, even thoughthe high volume of supplies, coupled with poor demand, especially from East Asia, is depressing prices further.

Russian aluminium exports are a little over three per cent up this year from 1997. Trade ministry data published last week showed exports in January to October at 2.3 million tonnes, from 2.2 million in the same period last year.

``They are working to increase capacity,'' head of research at Rudolf Wolff in London, Martin Squires said. ``Aluminium production has been increasing steadily over the last two years.''

He added that Russia was a high-cost producer, with extremely high employment costs as many plants were responsible for a range of social provisions outside the scope of western employers.

Costs were also high because finished metals had to be transported thousands of kilometres to markets from smelters in Siberia, and because many production processes were antiquated.

But despite high costs, he expected Russia to keep exports up because of its urgent need for cash. Russia ismired in economic crisis and all exports have become more profitable since the effective devaluation of the rouble in August.

Squires added that there were two big unknown factors which might affect the apparent predictability of Russian supply. The first was political instability. Since the economic turmoil began in August, some regional politicians have introduced economic measures independently of the centre.

These include governor Alexander Lebed of the Krasnoyarsk region where several of the biggest aluminium plants are located, and Squires said the market was uncertain about how political decisions taken locally might affect supply.

The other main uncertainty concerned the size of Russian stocks, and especially stocks of scrap.

``There is a lot of scrap in Russia, and since devaluation, even more so than before,'' Squires said. ``It's very difficult to gauge how much they've got. Some say 10 years' worth.''

He added that Russia had some 13 per cent of the global aluminium market, over 20 percent of nickel and some four per cent of copper. Russian equities analyst Alexei Kapkin of Dresdner Kleinwort Benson said that by contrast with aluminium, nickel exports were unlikely to rise next year because of a lack of investment at the country's largest producer, Norilsk Nickel.