The declining trend, according to experts, may accelerate as the state is witnessing a 11-per cent increase in the sugar cane availability and crushing is likely to extend till July, well beyond the peak recovery period.Moreover, the strike in the co-operative and public sector mills for one and a half months has delayed the commencement of crushing season and they are now forced to crush over matured cane which would result in a steep fall in recovery.

In the 1997-98 season, 35 mills in the state produced 12.31 lakh tonnes of sugar by crushing 145.81 lakh tonnes of cane. The average recovery was 8.44 per cent with the co-operative mills posting arecovery of 8.09 per cent while private sector registered 8.71 per cent.

For this season, cane availability is estimated at 163 lakh tonnes. With the jaggery prices ruling low not much of diversion is expected. The state sugar department which oversees the sugar sector in Tamil Nadu had earlier estimated sugar production of 14.5 lakh tonnes expecting a recovery of 8.8 per cent. But it is likely to scale its estimates downwards with the fall in initial recovery. They do not expect sugar production to exceed 13 lakh tonnes in the 1998-99 season.

Tamil Nadu, for the last three seasons, is experiencing a sharp fall in recovery. The main reason is the loss of two high recovery cane variety COC 671 and COC 92061 to red rot disease. Once affected, the variety has to be discontinued as no cure has so far been discovered. Added to the red rot problem is the unseasonal rains. In select areas, the state has been experiencing unusually heavy rains resulting in waterlogging of the fields. Low recovery and moreavailability of cane, especially in the context of poor realisation is not good for the industry. Farmers are paid for the cane supplied based on last year's recovery which is higher than what the mills can recover this year.