Though damage has been done to crop in Maharashtra, the situation is not as bad as traders depict by placing the crop estimate at around 155 lakh bales.In the absence of authentic crop survey, various sections of the cotton economy come out with their own estimates, more or less the way it suited them best. The move could be an attempt to seek an upward lift in the prices by projecting a lower crop and an expected tight supply situation. The users on the other hand would want market to believe a good crop, a steady supply and the resultant drop in the prices.

However, at a time when the cotton consumption is going down, a lower crop and a reduced supplies would hardly matter, feel observers. Currently, domestic cotton prices are Rs1500-2000 per candy higher than the international prices. Not only there would not be scope to export excess cotton but there would arise the possibility Indian mills importing cotton.It, therefore, would be myopic to push prices artificially by projecting a lower cotton crop, according to the experts. Actually cotton prices need to drop by 10 per cent at least to bring parity with the international prices.As it is the demand for cotton which should be high around this time of the year is absent now due to low consumption, expectation of lower prices and also due to cash crunch. There does not seem to be any revival of the demand for cotton in sight. And hence even if the crop turns out to be lower at say 155 lakh bales also, it would not cause shortages.

For the best quality, mills normally buy the cotton picked during the first flush which lasts till January. This time around mills are showing little interest in quality aspects. The main consideration is the immediate requirement and the resourceposition.

In the north, farmers are sitting on the stocks mainly to regulate supplies but lately because of their inability to bring the produce into the market due to unusually thick cover of winter fog, it has not happened. Supplies dry off faster since farmers uproot the cotton after two flushes to make room for winter crops which fetches more money than the subsequent flushes of cotton.

As against this, farmers in the south and in Gujarat pick cotton till April-May upto 7-8 flushes though each subsequent flush brings in lower quality and lower yield of cotton.

This time there are contradicting reports about the quality of the crop. While one section feels that there is enough moisture in the soil and the quality would be good in the latter flushes, the bear operators cry hoarse about deteriorating quality.