Unfavourable weather conditions have played havoc with the green gold of India which is expected to push down the domestic cardamom production to 4,500 tonnes as against previous year's 7,090 tonnes.

According to Mayur Desai, managing director of Perfect Cardamom, the official auctioneer at Navi Mumbai, the total availability of the precious spice is likely to be drastically lower compared to last year at 5,000 tonnes with a carry forward stock of around 500 tonnes. Previous year had a carry forward stock of 1,000 tonnes which increased the total availability at 8,090 tonnes.

Moreover, imports from Guatemala are also expected to be none due to major failure of crop in that country as a result of forest fire and later hurricane 'Mitch'. Last year import was to the tune of 2,000 tonnes.

This factor will further reduce the total availability during the year sending the price shooting up to historical high of Rs 1,000 per kilogram in the near future.

International prices are also likely to shoot up in tandem as crops in both Guatemala and India, the largest producers and the only suppliers in the global market are facing severe crop failures.

The crop loss in Guatemala is expected to be 50 per cent at 8,500 tonnes against previous year 17,000 tonnes. As a result the current international price of Guatemalan cardamom has doubled to $11 from last year's $ 4 per kilogram which has in turn more than trebled the landed cost at Indian ports to Rs 726 per kilogram (inclusive of penalty and duties).

This will prove to be completely uneconomical for the traders as they will have to invest a huge amount of Rs 726 per kilogram against previous year's Rs 240 to earn a paltry Rs 100 per kg.

This will discourage imports of cardamom in the country leading to an acute shortage. But this factor may revive the sagging domestic trade in cardamom as the domestic prices which have already crossed Rs 800 per kg will attract the bull operators when the quality of new arrivals will increasingly deteriorate by the end of January, other traders explained.

According to sources at New Mumbai Agriculture Produce Market Commission (APMC), in spite of damage to cardamom crop in Guatemala due to hurricane 'Mitch', India will not be able to cash in on the opportunity due to loss in domestic crop as well as poor stock position in the country.

The stock position at both the producing centres as well as marketing centres have completely exhausted and the carry forward stock from the previous year is nil. The stockists and the planters had offloaded the entire stock prior to Diwali in the hope of buying the new crop immediately after Diwali at lower prices.

But the expected downward reaction took a complete U-turn and the prices of cardamom shot up at the onset of the new arrivals which dashed the hopes of the trading fraternity.

The prices at all the auction centres have been witnessing steady spiralling this year. The maximum cardamom price at New Mumbai market which was registered at Rs 711 per kilogram at the first auction held on October 5 has shot up to Rs 880 at the twelfth auction held on December 31. The maximum price registered at these two auctions have also shot up to Rs 711 and Rs 865, respectively.

Similarly the auction prices at the centres in Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka and Delhi have also been witnessing similar upward trend.

The global crop is expected to decline to 14,000-15,000 tonnes against the demand of 24,000-25,000 tonnes. The 10,000 tonne expected shortfall will send the prices soaring in the coming months.

The exporters will be in fix as they will have to purchase at high prices from the market to fulfill their export obligations contracted at much lower prices, sources said.