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Friday, January 8, 1999

Circumstances decide whether economic development is good 

 
Beauty is in the eye of the beholder.

This applies as much to economic figures as to the human kind. Whetheran economic development is good news or bad news may depend on circumstances, or on who you are something most scribblers tend to ignore.Let's consider some of the emotive words that are misleadingly used to describe economic numbers. Headlines that include the word gloom are more likely to make the front page, so writers are tempted to give their stories a grim spin.

Thus, a fall in oil prices might trigger the headline: Oil-price gloom. Lower prices are indeed bad news for producers but they are good news for consumers.

Or consider interest rates. Pundits always pronounce a rise in interest rates as bad. Yet for every borrower there is a saver, who gains from higher rates. It is true that higher interest rates may force firms to cut investment and jobs.

But in many countries the personal sectorhas more assets than debts at variable interest rates, so it is a net winner when rates rise. Tradebalances are a rich source of over-emotional language used by economic writers. When a country's trade deficit shrinks, it is always said to improve; if a surplus disappears it has deteriorated. The presumption is: surplus good, deficit bad. But a country's trade balance is a poor gauge of economic strength. Since Japan's widening trade surplus reflects the depressed state of its economy, it is hardly good news. Likewise, the recent shift in Asia's emerging economies from deficit to surplus: if these surpluses shrink next year as demand picks up, that will be good news, not bad.

Commentators should note that trade deficits may increase or decrease they can never improve.

Finally, here is a readers' nomination for the best financial babble.This gem comes from The Independent, a British newspaper: Concerns that the economic outlook might not be as gloomy as feared hit interest rate hopes and sent financial markets lower...

-- The Economist

Copyright © 1999 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.


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