Curiously, Rahul Bajaj, a past president of CII, reportedly supported Ficci's position. This shows how futile it is to divide Indian business into protectionist and anti-protectionist.

So much depends on who produces what. Producers of intermediates -- steel, chemicals et al -- love import protection. But users of these intermediates are for lower import duties. This helps them to reduce costs. Expectedly, the steel industry -- both in the public and private sectors -- joined hands with Ficci, as did IPCL, a chemicals major. Note that the 30 per cent import duty on steel is amongst the highest in the world. SID is the final straw for the engineering industry, a large user of steel, and the capital-goods industry. They want lower duties.

However, the capital-goods industry also wants the import duty on capital goods (20 per cent) hiked. An industry can thus be both anti-protectionist and protectionist. In petro-chemicals, anti-dumping duties against select inputs are anathema.

But there was unanimity on retaining the special additional duty (SAD), even though SAD imports attract sales tax, and this has a cascading effect on costs and prices.

One explanation for the consensus is that imports escape SAD if made under the duty-entitlement passbook (DEPB) scheme; another is that it is borne by ckd and skd imports, mainly resorted to by new multinational entrants. SAD is swadeshi.

But as regards SID, as also the structure of import levies, the finance minister has no clear-cut lobby to appease. He must take a view on fiscal initiatives needed to rev up the economy. Unlike in the pre-liberalisation period, lobby positions are now taken openly.

The structure and level of import duties have assumed significance as the economy has become import-dependent. But reducing import duties -- to nudge industrial growth and exports, the latter has a high import content -- is not feasible. A cut in duty rates will mean loss of customs revenue; this will require a hike in excise duties, which will only exacerbate the recession.

(Besides, excise duties are highly evasion-prone.) For Yashwant Sinha, the status quo seems to be the best option, except that SID and SAD are disputed under WTO, which is likely to rule against both. The chances are that he will pare import duties, let the rupee slide, and thus raise the effective level of protection.