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Thursday, January 21, 1999

Year-on-year credit growth rate touches nadir 

Manas Chakravarty  
For the first time since last September, there has been a decrease in the rate of growth of bank credit compared to the growth recorded in the corresponding period last fiscal. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) figures for bank credit as on January 1, 1999, show that total credit growth this fiscal has fallen substantially below the growth during the corresponding period of 1997-98. Total credit growth during the period March 27, 1998 to January 1, 1999 was Rs 19,945 crore, compared to Rs 22,215 crore during the period March 28, 1997 to January 2, 1998.

Not only has total credit growth been affected, but non-food credit growth too has been sluggish. During the period mentioned above, non-food credit growth was Rs 16,329 crore this fiscal, compared to Rs 17,865 crore in 1997-98. Moreover, even the growth in total bank credit plus investments by banks in the commercial sector has been below that achieved last fiscal. This total was Rs 27,748 crore for the above-mentioned period, compared to Rs 30,987 crore in1997-98. This is the first time since July that the growth in total accommodation provided by banks to the commercial sector has slipped below the growth recorded in the corresponding period of 1997-98.

The reason for the sudden dip in growth is because of a spurt in non-food credit during the fortnight ended January 2, 1998. While non-food credit growth was Rs 5,017 crore during the period December 18, 1998 to January 1, 1999, non-food credit growth was as high as Rs 9,585 crore for the period December 19, 1997 to January 2, 1998. An additional reason for the fall in total credit plus investments to corporates could be the fact that the data on investments has not been updated as on January 1, and the previous fortnight's figures have been repeated in the Weekly Statistical Supplement.

However, that is unlikely, because the rate of growth of investments in the corporate sector has been very sluggish this year. For the fortnight from December 4, 1998 to December 18, investments in corporates increased byRs 424 crore, compared to Rs 1,188 crore for the corresponding fortnight a year ago. Among investments, the growth in commercial papers (CPs) has been the least, with a growth of Rs 2,416 crore this fiscal compared to Rs 5,123 crore in the corresponding part of 1997-98. In fact, the slowdown in the growth of non-food credit was evident from the previous fortnight. During the period December 4 to 18, 1998, non-food credit increased by Rs 1,539 crore, compared to a spurt of Rs 2,209 crore in the corresponding period of 1997. However, growth is expected to pick up during the last quarter of the fiscal year.

Copyright © 1999 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.


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