London: Robusta futures in London ended mostly higher on roaster and trade buying. March added $5 to close at $1,675 per tonne, while May last traded $3 higher at $1,630 per tonne. January was unchanged at $1,650 per tonne.In contrast to London, arabica futures in New York plummeted in heavy volume skidding through all sorts of technical indicators and moving averages.Fund long liquidation and producer selling drove the market lower. Concerns about the Brazilian economy continued to weigh on sentiment.
Also phe CFTC commitment of traders report released Friday which showed speculative longs built up their holdings by about 3,000 lots in the past two weeks to 15,420 lots undermined sentiment.
On the negative side was also the build up of GCA stocks in December. Otherfactors that could have exerted additional downward pressure included statements from Colombia that production and exports in 1999 are likely to remain strong and roasting data showed a sharp drop.
Brazil also indicated that they wouldcontinue to auction off coffee stocks to help offset the lower crop next season. Merill Lynch said that these factors coupled with the prospect of increased shipments from Central America in the next few weeks was too much for the market to bear.
March lost 9 cents to close at 106.55 cents/lb. May last traded 8.20 cents/lb lower at 108.80. The rest of the board lost bepween 7.40 to 7.80 cents.
FUNDAMENTALS
United States: The CSCE reported certified coffee stocks rose by 2,75060-kg bags as of last week to 94,466 bags. There were 6,500 bags pending grading, the exchange said. CSCE also said that 2,245 bags were graded and 745 bags passed exchange approval.
Germany: German green coffee imports from outside the European Union totalled 1,532,417 bags in October 1998 which compares to 1,296,015 bags imported the same month the previous year. That brought total imports since the beginning of 1998 to 10.136 mln bags, down from 10.468 mln in the same period in 1997, the DKV Coffee Associationsaid.
The total in calendar 1997 was 12.439 mln bags, up from 11.976 mln in 1996. Colombia shipped 267,855 bags in October (17 percent), Brazil 420,567 bags (27 percent), Africa 205,581 bags (13 percent), Central and South America 224,580 bags (15 percent), Asia 413,833 bags (27 percent) and others one bag.
Colombia: Colombia is still expected to produce 12-12.5 mln 60-kg bags of coffee during 1999. Colombia's exports this year will reach around 11.5 mln bags, in line with international export agreements.
The official production estimate for 1998/99 (October/September) remains at 12 mln bags. Colombia closed 1998 with stocks of 4.6 mln bags, unchanged from inventory levels at the end of 1997, the National Coffee Growers' Federation said. The federation hopes that a significantly lower crop in Brazil in 1999/2000 will offset the effects of the devaluation of the real.
Honduras: Honduras exported 443,780 60-kg bags of coffee from October 1 to January 15, 1998/99, which compares to 413,345 bags exportedthe same period the previous year, the Honduran Coffee Institute (IHCAFE) said.
Norway: Norway imported 46,079 bags of coffee in October 1998 whichcompares to 36,928 bags imported the same month the previous year. That brought total imports since the beginning of 1998 up to 612,600 bags, 3.8 percent more than was imported the same period in 1997.
Total imports in calendar 1997 reached 683,600 bags, down from 719,900 bags imported the previous year. Main suppliers of green coffee in January/October 1998 were Brazil (160,700 vs 200,700 bags) and Colombia (146,000 vs 106,900 bags).
Vietnam: The weakness in the global coffee market has forced Vietnamese suppliers to lower their offers but buyers are waiting for even better bargains, traders in Singapore said. "In terms of differentials (to London levels), the change is not much. But offers have dropped by some $100 and could drop even more," a trader at a western trading firm said.Offers for Vietnam's robusta grade 2, five per cent black and broken wereoffered at around $1,500 a tonne, down from around $1,600 late last week.
Copyright © 1999 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.