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Thursday, January 28, 1999

Asia unlikely to see cheap sugar imports from China 

Kenneth Barry  
Hong Kong, Jan 27: Asian sugar traders said on Wednesday they did not expect China to devalue the yuan or flood the market with cheap sugar exports.

Nor were there signs of increased exports from Brazil coming into the region after that country's currency devaluation.

"I don't think China's currency will be devalued. They definitely will export something but only what they have imported for tolling. The exports will not be related to the currency," a trader said.

He said China was likely to export 200,000 to 300,000 tonnes of white sugar tolled under long-term contract from Cuba and other origins.

In Beijing on Wednesday Dai Xianglong, governor of China's central bank, said at a news conference China would not devalue because it would hurt foreign investment and increase China's foreign debt burden.

Another trader said there was an inquiry for a vessel to move raw sugar to China but details were limited. "It is just at the inquiry stage, they still must work out the cost," he said. He said hebelieved the inquiry involved 30,000 tonnes of sugar from Brazil.

If the cargo were to be fixed, the raw sugar would be tolled in China and probably sold in Southeast Asia, the trader said. China's export plans for 1999 may become clearer from the government after Chinese New Year, which falls in mid-February, traders said.

Despite worries about Brazil's real devaluation of more than 30 per cent against the dollar, there was no flood of Brazilian exports currently, traders said.

"There is no Brazilian sugar at the moment because Thai sugar is still competitive," a trader said.

Elsewhere the market was quiet, with Indonesia the only source of buying with its resumption of small purchases, traders said.

One to two cargoes of white sugar were heard moving to Indonesia from Thailand, a trader said, although the recent weakening in the rupiah threatened to have a dampening impact on demand.

The drop in world sugar prices below seven cents a lb to near 11-year lows, which was caused by currency scaresin Brazil and China, could revive buying in Asia, although there were no signs of recovery in demand, traders said.

"In general, demand is weak. I think this situation will continue because of the economic downturn," one trader said.

Premiums for Thai raw sugar over Coffee, Sugar and Cocoa Exchange prices for January/March were 30 points offered and for March/May 20 to 45 points.

Copyright © 1999 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.


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