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Saturday, January 30, 1999

Top finance officials urge closer economic cooperation 

Michael Shields  
Davos (Switzerland), Jan 29: Top financial officials said on Thursday that rich countries had to work more closely together to coordinate economic policy and even out swings that make some regions boom while others swoon.

Only by intensifying cooperation can major countries lend mutual support that keeps economies strong and people in jobs, they told a panel discussion at the World Economic Forum's annual meeting, a week-long business summit in the Swiss Alps.

But they were short on details on how to do this, with the laissez-faire US approach again clashing with the more interventionist attitude in Europe and Japan.

French finance minister Dominique Strauss-Kahn said the key issue for 1999 was to develop such international cooperation and to make the IMF and World Bank more accountable.

``If we succeed, I am not afraid of 1999,'' he said, adding cooperation could ensure growth continued this year and next.

Germany's deputy finance minister, Heiner Flassbeck said a proper response to an economicslowdown in the mid-1980s could have prevented an extra one million jobless in his country. He said the world had to counter the risk of deflation.

British chancellor of the exchequer Gordon Brown said he hoped a new way to monitor the global economy could soon be in place to act as an early warning system.

``We should move quickly to set up what has been proposed as a new global standing committee of international and national regulators to conduct the regular and systematic surveillance of our world financial system, to be in effect an early warning system on financial issues, and I believe we should have this in place before the summer,'' he said.

He said the international community had the responsibility to support and develop such a preventive system.

``I believe that in this area we could have decisions by the summer and intensive discussions to reach conclusions by the end of the year.''

US deputy treasury secretary Lawrence Summers was again more sceptical that anything other than Group ofSeven (G7) policy makers' focus on getting the fundamentals right would convince markets.

``Cooperation and coordination between the G7 is obviously desirable, but I would record some scepticism about the view that more frequent or improved statements from ministers and (central bank) governors would serve by themselves to stabilise markets.''

Japan's top financial diplomat, Eisuke Sakakibara, said the hard-hit Japanese economy was starting to find its feet after working through its financial crisis and should start to rebound by the middle of this year.

Many Japanese exporters are competitive with the yen at the current levels, the deputy finance minister said.

``The financial crisis is about to be over. And the (exchange) rate will return to the pre-crisis level. At around the current level 115 (to) 116 (yen to the dollar), many of the Japanese exporters are quite competitive,'' he said.

He believed it may be too early to say that Japan's economy had hit the bottom in the last quarter of 1998 orearly in 1999, but did not rule out a recovery later this year.

``I think I could at least say that by the middle of 1999 the Japanese economy will bottom out,'' Sakakibara said.

Summers said the US economy was set to keep growing ``with ups and downs'' and could likely withstand any external shocks that arise.

``I believe the momentum of expansion in the United States should continue, albeit with some ups and down,'' he said.

``The American economy is well positioned to respond to any shocks that may come,'' he added.

But he was more sceptical that Japan was about to turn the corner.

``I know that we would all be prepared to congratulate the Japanese authorities if a year from now we were able to declare the Japanese financial crisis definitively over and Japan's growth definitively re-established,'' he said.

``I suspect that a review of Japanese pronouncements at the last eight meetings of the Davos economic forum would suggest that it was a good idea to wait and see what happens beforedeclaring victory.''

Copyright © 1999 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.


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