But how can one forget that the budget will be unlike any other. But how come the market is bullish, you ask. The bullishness was triggered by HLL, and later propelled by the multinational pharma stocks. While there is much expectation of good quarterly reports from HLL, the pharma MNC's with December ending are expected to be posting interesting results shortly.

Coupled with this is the marketmen's expectation of bonus on a few counters. And may be other FMCGs too would have to please the shareholders, so goes the trader's logic. So you have Nestle, Cadbury and the like making steady improvements.The undertone has been reinforced by FIIs joining the bull-wagon. They have been buying selectively, which ultimately is colouring the rally to be a case of a pre-budget rally.

Apart from the pharma and FMCG stocks, the infotech stocks continue to hold their attraction and there has been no let-up in market price of Infosys, NIIT and Satyam Computers. So in reality, the market is kicking itself into a frenzy. Steel producers have decided to roll back the price increases on coiled products, but that did not dent Tisco's quote. The firmness in long products is perhaps reason enough for punters to continue to stay long on the scrip! Again, the government has resolved to cut back fertiliser subsidies and revamp the system of compensating fertiliser companies. This is indeed a good beginning, but it could hardly pinch Tata Chem share, that too at the bottom! In the refinery sector as well, fresh initiatives are being made. Customs duty is likely to be reduced on crude oil imports in the budget and import duty onrefined petro products is likely to go up. Despite that, there was impact on Cochin Refinery stock.

Even HPCL failed to improve further, though BPCL became vibrant. Punters probably suspect that the oil companies are unlikely to get the benefits, which will go into the oil pool account. And the redemption of the oil bonds is unlikely to be advanced. But one needs to remember that close to half of the bond amount has already been returned. But there is more positive news for the sector, since the country would be moving towards a faster dismantling of the administered price mechanism for the refinery sector.

This coincides with the coming on line of the increased refining capacity. Therefore, investors might well look at the possibility of higher turnovers. Certainly, competition will set in, unless the demand for refinery products picks up. But competitive operating parameters would decide the pricing of individual refinery stock. Prices of both Gujarat Ambuja and ACC have been buoyant. The auto sectoris riding the market on future hopes. Hero Honda has proved what product and geographic focusing can do. And TVS Suzuki has shown how aggressive filling of demand segments can preempt both markets and market shares. And Bajaj Auto is an interesting story of a fight-back, while Mahindra & Mahindra plans to drive into Bajaj's territory with three wheelers!

Punters don't mind taking risks surfing the peak of Telco's quotes, hoping that Indica and the pick-up in truck sales would do the trick. In the process, they do not mind distancing from figuring out the details of the profit and loss statement that the company would turn out, after providing for the investment in turning out Indica. Traders are indeed a strange lot.

When the markets are depressed, they tend to put on a more distressing cap. Everything is gloomy. They scan the horizon for negative news and get into the nitty-gritty of profit figures. And at other times, like now, they choose to feel euphoric. Irrational euphoria is what Allan Greenspanterms this behaviour. You cannot certainly blame the punters who feel bullish on pharma and IT stocks. And if cigarette sales are flat, who cares. Just forget ITC and concentrate on other counters.

Marketmen and FIIs seem to behave in a similar pragmatic pattern. But in the heat of trading, everyone finds it convenient to forget the basic economic issues. The trader's approach seems to be that we will cross the bridge when we come to it. That is; let us see the budget, why bother about it right now, seems to be the convenient logic.

Anyone who wants to be trading profitably needs to agree with them. For right or wrong, you have to fall in line with the market's thinking and behaviour. There is no room for rationale, for you lose when you fight the market! In fact, most traders do not seem to understand that everything is not well with the economy. Quite possibly, they consciously or unconsciously filter out negative implications. For all you know, traders might have been gladdened by the good news onGDP and fiscal deficit fronts. But they seem to forget that industrial production is down and net corporate profits in the last quarter is nothing to be happy about.

Selective amnesia seems to be not only convenient, but also an essential ingredient for playing the stock game. Everyone has turned a blind eye on several negatives. The political system is too unruly to get a handle on long-term fiscal policy. A control on non-developmental and non-Plan expenditure continues to be remote. The government is fooling itself that just opening the doors wider will boost FDI inflow .

The government is too blind to realise that this is not enough. More problems are in store, with the state and central fiscal deficit put together. Capital expenditures of the central government now account for around 4 per cent of GDP as compared to 7 per cent a decade earlier. Traders prefer, right now, not to dwell on these negatives. But the discerning investor should realise that Sinha has no magic wand. And the nation needs toprepare for a long trek on an uphill track. This is all fine, and that is why everyone is doing selective trading, so would one argue. But FIIs would, sooner than later, start assigning weight to the deficiencies discussed above.

Agreed, there are are no quick fixes, yet, they would certainly look for signs of determination on the part of the ruling and opposition parties that they are willing to get a handle on these priorities. Much would depend upon how the BJP can coalesce the process of political maturity. It would also depend upon how far the opposition is prepared to tone down political opportunism.