Consequently, railways receipts are marginally lower than budgeted. Finances have been also jolted by increased pension payments in the wake of the pay commission award. Even so, for the coming year, railway minister Nitish Kumar has assumed smooth sailing. The freight target for 1999-2000 is 450 million tonnes. Obviously, he expects the recessionary tide to turn. Fair enough. But this is hardly ground for raising freight tariffs by four per cent across the board to garner Rs 700 crore.

Though the increase is less than the general rate of inflation, it is hardly warranted in a situation where the revival of the economy is still chancy. It is also curious that after all the tall talk about the need to end a tariff regime wherefreight subsidises passenger fares, he has resorted to slapping an increase in freight. Freight has to bear the burden of keeping the passenger happy.

Nitish Kumar has discovered that passengers need to be pampered: so he has made 1999-2000 the `year of the passenger'. There is no increase in second class passenger fares. And he has announced a scale of multipliers over the basic second class fare, ranging from 1.55 for second class sleeper to 14.4 for AC first class. There will be suitable adjustments for Rajdhani and Shatabdi trains. This is nice and egalitarian, but the additional revenue from such fare rationalisation will be Rs 200 crore; actually less, since this estimate includes revenue from parcel and luggage. The railway minister has kept the fare burden light in the year of the passenger, a sure sign he is looking over his shoulder: the year to come could be one of swift political change.

The trouble is traffic receipts might fall short of estimate if the recession does not lift, while workingexpenses will rise as estimated. There is also the problem of pension liability which has been held below that for 1998-99. The shortfall in railways resources for funding the plan will be larger than conceded by Nitish Kumar. The new schemes announced by him to appease various constituents can only bloat the volume of pending projects, already at a sizable Rs 34,000 crore. The railway minister had given the impression that he would rather consolidate existing operations than take up populist projects. He has now reversed his stand. Such is the pressure of politics.