Therefore, asking for the moon from the finance minister makes no sense. It's better to count on the stars. In other words, let the industry revive; let the government fall; let the Congress comeback to power; and, of course, let the elusive FII come with a bag full of dollars!

It's not so much the cynicism, but it's the state of suspended animation which has found many operators unwinding their positions in the market. A lull has already descended on the markets. But is it a lull before the storm? Can the investors expect the unexpected from finance ministerYashwant Sinha's second budget. All that one is sure is that the timing of the budget presentation may not be rolled back to the customary 5 p.m.In the last lap of the budget run-up, the traders' choice has finally narrowed down to Reliance Industries. Which is why, when the business in the Satyams and the Pentafours have shrunk on the bourses, Reliance has shot back into prominence, with trading volumes crossing the one crore share mark again. This was the only stock which was not accumulated even as the build-up in the automobile, cement and steel stocks went on, on hopes of concessions for these sectors. These have lost flavour now.

The `only-Reliance' mood two days before the budget is seen on hopes that the government will impose anti-dumping duties. A belief which has no rationale -- anti-dumping duties are not decided by the finance minister.There could be more to it than meets the eye! That is where the surprises lie. It is not just the Reliance flavour that matters, it is the way the excise dutieswill be restructured. This is something the finance minister is keen on carrying out.

He has been repeatedly promising at various fora to bring down the number of excise duty rates. In the bargain, the losers and gainers will be difficult to predict. If the restructuring is done with a mark-up approach, i.e., clubbing lower ones with higher ones, the axe will fall on a large number of items. This will help fetch revenue, dampen sentiments and extend the recessionary conditions.

The alternative is the reverse: Higher rates are clubbed into lower ones, leading to revenue loss, may be at the margin if growth picks up in the year. This is a different kind of a gamble and may be an affordable one if only the long-term gains are taken into account. After all, some fiscal cushioning has already been gained through the reduction in subsidies on food, fertiliser and LPG.

The surprises may not be many, but for the markets, Saturday is certainly not the day of the reckoning; whichever way the Sensex moves. Thegains and surprises could very well be hidden in the fineprint, not necessarily the headlines.