"Many estates are reporting that they are picking up only 60-70 per cent of their earlier estimates," he said. This means that arabica production could decline to 75,000 tonnes against an estimate of one lakh tonnes made by the Coffee Board.

Shah saidarrivals of new crop between January and February 15, had been around 1,200 tonnes against 4,000 tonnes during same period last year. A section of exporters said arrivals were low since growers were holding on to the stocks in view of the low prices. The Coffee Board chairman S V Ranganath, denied that crop had been hit due to unseasonal rains. "Coffee board estimates may vary slightly. There is no fear of the crop being hit adversely," he said.

The Coffee Board has projected a 2.33 lakh tonnes production this season (October 1998-September 1999) against 2.30 lakh tonnes in the last season. Of the estimates for the current season, arabica output is estimated at one lakh tonnes and robusts 1.33 lakh tonnes.

Jayaprasad said while there were reports of arabica crop being hit, there were also indications of a higher robusta output. Shah said exporters were now concentrating on robusta coffee but the situation was so bad that some of them could go out of business.

"Exporters are in a weak situation. We haveto buy coffee at higher prices around Rs 10-15 a kg from the growers to fulfil our obligations," he said.According to provisional export figures, permits had been issued to export 19,700 tonnes from January to February 15, of which only 1,400 tonnes had been shipped. This is far less than the shipments made during same period last year.

A Mysore coffee curing works official said his firm, one of the leading exporters, had not exported a single coffee bean this year. Exporters say the situation was likely to become grim in the next few days as global coffee prices were set to decline further.

Besides the fall in value of Brazilian real, which had declined by nearly 45 per cent to 50 cents against the dollar, the global market is also faced with a glut in production due to a 33 million bag (of 50 kg) production by the Latin American country.

However, things could improve if predictions that Brazil's crop would be lower the next year by 50 per cent turn true. "Then we will have a chance to improve ourfortunes. Until then, things will be pretty tight," an official from a corporate company involved in exports said.

Coffee export problems also look real in view of a low carryover stock of 7,200 tonnes from the last season. This was expected to reduce exports this year at least by 20,000 tonnes, exporters said.

Coffee exports this season before the Brazilian trouble began was expected to touch 1.7 lakh tonnes against a record 2.2 lakh tonnes last season.