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Sunday, February 28, 1999

PR Brahmananda wonders about cracks behind the wall-paper 

Our Bangalore Bureau  
Eminent economist PR Brahmananda has picked out several flaws in the Union budget 1999-2000. He said the actual fiscal deficit projection for 1999-2000 should be read as 5.25 per cent and not 4.7 per cent as computed by finance minister Yashwant Sinha. He said removing small savings from capital receipts in the budgetary calculations of fiscal deficit had given a misleading impression.

The minister had stated that fiscal deficit would be 4.7 per cent as against 5.1 per cent in '98-99 whereas the figure for last year was 5.8 per cent.Brahmananda said the revenue deficit for '99-2000 had been put at 2.71 per cent against 3.34 per cent in '98-99, but the finance minister had not taken into account the Rs 1,10,000-crore which was the estimated additional burden on state governments for the implementation of the pay commission proposals.

He said the minister's optimism concerning the fiscal deficit was probably misplaced since the entire amount would have to come from the Centre, adding that it was not clearhow he would deal with the problem.

Brahmananda, in a statement faxed to The Financial Express, pointed out that a 6 per cent inflation rate was built into the budget since the finance ministry documents postulated an increase in GDP next year by 6 per cent and an increase in the level of prices by 6 per cent.

Taking a dig at the two ministers from Bihar for ``not coordinating their proposals'', he said while the railway minister (Nitish Kumar) had raised freight rates anticipating larger net receipts, the rise in the price of diesel would derail his hopes.

Although Brahmananda welcomed the Gold Deposit Scheme, he said the interest rate would have to be equal to the real rate which was around 6 per cent. The tax concessions for UTI and mutual funds would mean that the gap between the return from the UTI scrips and the bank deposits would go up. This would reduce the flow of deposits to banks.

The economist however congratulated Sinha for not announcing any reduction in interest rates and also for notpleading for a reduction in exchange rates. He also patted him on the back for not reducing the exemption limit and the small surcharge on direct tax payers although he could have raised more through taxation to reduce the deficits and his borrowings.

Copyright © 1999 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.


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