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Thursday, March 18, 1999

Wait till the scrips adjust completely to new levels 

K Seshadri  
The post budget euphoria is ebbing, if one were to judge by the slow erosion in the Sensex scrips.

On Monday, this column had warned investors not to become victims of intra-day high volatility. The value of this warning was evident even on Wednesday.

Take a look at the high volatility. Bajaj Auto moved between Rs 533 and Rs 573. Anyone who had entered at Rs 573 would be left regretting. This column had clearly pointed out that stock prices have to stabilise yet at their new level post-budget. And frankly expecting the market to race up unidirectional further and immediately was simply taking too much risk.What happened at Bajaj Auto was repeated at the Bhel counter as well. High volatility was seen in other counters like Reliance, SBI, Tisco and Telco. And in other counters the ebbing down of stock prices is quite apparent.The euphoria on pharma stocks is evaporating. And the Infy effect is wearing also off! This writer had repeatedly cautioned investors in excercising discretion and booking profit inInfosys. That was based on both technical and fundamental analysis. All the same, you need to give time to even Nasdaq investors get a handle on their judgement. And with retail investors playing the game, you need to be on the look out.

With HLL too weakening, it is difficult to see any strong upward momentum. The test is now on as to at what levels, punters are ready to stake at the current price. Looking at the Sensex pattern, the index could take support at 3660 or 3600. If those who had already gone long decide to hold out, this is possible. On the other hand if bulls decide to book profit, these supports will fail. Except in Hindalco, HPCL and FI stocks, do not be in a hurry to take a new position.

Copyright © 1999 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.


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