While in other parts of the country cultivators seem to be worried whether they will be able to sell their entire produce before the onset of monsoon at reasonable prices.

The crop in Gujarat, which was earlier estimated at 45 lakh bales, is now projected between 47 and 50 lakh bales of 170 kg each. On the other hand textile mills are said to be purchasing on a hand-to-mouth basis in view of the subdued demand for their yarn as well as fabrics. The union budget has not only dashed their hopes for relief, but has also added to their woes, by stepping up the excise burden on cotton fabrics (valued at less than Rs 30 per sq meter, an item of mass consumption) as well as on cotton yarn.

Cultivators seem to be concerned as the prices for their produce are down compared to the levels prevailing this time last year though the costs of seeds,fertilisers and chemicals are all up. Also, the cost of living index as measured by CPI-IW is up by nearly 10 per cent.

Sankar-6, a popular variety of cotton grown in Gujarat is said to have plummeted to Rs 18,500 compared with Rs 21,200 in the same period last year. Arrivals of another variety, V-797, are in full swing and its prices have also fallen though the union textile minister, Kasiram Rana, had made an oral announcement that CCI had been directed to buy from the cultivators their entire production. CCI, no doubt, had made some purchases in Gujarat.

However, the cultivators are worried as their prices are down even though the Gujarat Chief Minister, Kesubhai Patel, had advised the Gujarat State Co-operative Cotton Federation (Gujarat) to intervene in the market. Even those who are able to effect sales are not sure when they will receive the payments.

Recently, one big supplier in the south received a setback when he realised that he may not receive a huge amount for the supply of cotton to aconsumer. The unreliable demand-supply estimates are a bane for the cotton economy. One can understand uncertainties about the estimates of crop which is always subject to the vagaries of nature. However, in our country even demand estimates remain undependable, though they are not dependent upon climatic condition.

For instance, the mill consumption of cotton for the current season was estimated at 144 lakh bales in November 1998 by the Cotton Advisory Board (CAB). This was brought down at the next CAB meeting in February 1999 to 141 lakh bales, though some members were emphatic that it may not exceed 138 lakh bales. Trade sources are not inclined to place it between 135 and 138 lakh bales. Cotton consumption estimates for the small and non-mill sectors remain equally unconvincing.

On the other hand the cotton crop this season which was projected by CAB at 161.50 lakh bales in February 1999 is now expected by the trade to be larger at around 163 to 165 lakh bales.

Though exports have been projected attwo lakh bales, it is doubtful whether they can reach even one lakh bales, unless the situation suddenly turns favourable for the purpose. Imports can be well around 6.50 lakh bales. The end-season stock threatens to scale an all-time high of 43-45 lakh bales or more. This is enough to cause serious concern to the cotton cultivators. It was necessary to lift all restrictions on the export of cotton from the start of the last season, if not earlier. Had this been done, the situation would not have been as worrisome as it has become now due to the faulty policy based on unreliable data.