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Friday, April 9, 1999

Sensex may bounce back to 3755 

K Seshadri  
Stock prices reflect the dilemma that traders are finding it difficult to resolve one way or another. The Sensex lost 49 points to close at 3538, but a drastic drop in volumes indicates that market players are not unduly bearish.

Despite that, the week end pressure should normally weigh heavily on stock prices on Friday. The stochastic indicator for Sensex is still not strong enough to suggest a buy. But should the Sensex manage to hang on to around the current level for a one or two more sessions, that would change.

It is only appropriate to extend our forecasting venture, beyond the week end consideration, into the next week, to include the Fernades Vs Bhagwat issue will in the Parliament.

Let us take into account the worst case scenario as well right now to figure out if you should sell out, or buy long. After buoying above the baseline earlier above 3670 level, Sensex has broken down in the last seven sessions. What is the worst that can happen in the immediate future?

As of Thursday, whileattrition sliced off around 50 points of the Sensex, volumes have shrunk. Beyond that when you look at individual stocks, they are not going down so easily. A battle is on trying to retain their foothold.

This is especially true of the heavy weights like Infosys, ITC, NIIT and a few others. Combine this support with the week-end consideration, the index could move down to 3466 during the intra-day. That would be a good point for the medium term investor to pick up bargains.

And if the political scenario becomes more threatening, and the Sensex breaks down it can slip down to 3418. On the other hand, the probability distribution of the last three days point to the possibility of the index surging back to 3755, in double fast time. That would happen if the political cloud lifts. So on the balance, I feel it is worth taking the risk on Friday by picking up select blue chips, with a time frame consideration of three weeks.

Copyright © 1999 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.


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