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Sunday, April 18, 1999

Czars fret over Finance Bill, reforms fate 

OUR BUREAU  
MUMBAI, Apr 17: The captains of industry hoped that the Finance Bill would be passed while praying for a sense of continuity in the reforms process. Concerns on the fiscal front continued to disturb market-players but the attractive valuations of several front-line stocks seem to have brought back the institutional pundits. Moreover, the possibility of a Congress-led government still provides a ray of hope to spur the markets.

Bajaj Auto CMD Rahul Bajaj
The new government needs to clear the Finance and Companies Bill and other legislations within a week and then work on fresh policy initiatives on this front which one hopes would not be significantly different than that of the BJP government. It is time the industry got a government with a five year tenure after four governments in the past three years.

Hinduja group chairman SP Hinduja
We have to learn to live with these kind of coalition governments and accept this as a fact of life, at both the Centre and state level. Sincemost political parties are, in one form or the other, committed to economic liberalisation, we are confident that the ruling party would focus on the economic agenda and keep political differences aside. The nation must not suffer for lack of infrastructure -- physical or social.

M&M MD Anand Mahindra
There could be a silver lining to the entire episode if all the parties can on Monday clear the Finance Bill. This would send out a strong signal to investors that even in the most divisive of times, the political parties attach importance to economic issues. Even if this fails to happen, it is critical for the new government to appoint a credible finance minister. If the largest party announces its candidate for such a post before the formation of the government, it would have an even more soothing effect on the markets.

L&T CEO SD Kulkarni
The fall of the BJP-led coalition will have disastrous consequences for the industry. With a positive thrust on housing and infrastructure, YashwantSinha's budget had given an impression that the government is serious about tackling the country's problems. However, with the demise of the government, these hopes have been dashed. The political chaos has brought about a sense of gloom and uncertainty. The need of the hour is a joint effort by the political parties to ensure passage of the Finance Bill or else the country will suffer heavily.

The current economic situation is not at all satisfactory with a ballooning fiscal deficit and the current stalemate will only compound the crisis. With conflicting groups trying to cobble a majority, there is little hope of achieving the much-needed stability as political compulsions may not allow the next government to take the bold steps the economy badly needs.

SC senior advocate Dinesh Vyas
Under Article 74(1) of the constitution, when a council of ministers is unseated by a vote of no-confidence and resigns, but there is no possibility of forming an alternative government.

Commanding confidenceof the majority in the House of the people, the President may select some member of the house who, in his estimation, is more likely to command a majority in the House and ask him to form a council of ministers.Whoever forms the next government, it may not be expedient to accept the provisions of the Finance Bill in toto. However, the increased rates that have already come into effect (like the surcharge or the new TDS rates), will have to be retained by passing a revised, non-controversial Finance Bill.

Jindal Iron MD Sajjan Jindal
Although I am optimistic about the long-term prospects, the economy may suffer badly in the short term because of political uncertainties.

Confidence of international investors has been badly shaken and the industry will find it difficult to cope with the present crisis.

Kaji & Maulik Sec director Maulik Sharedalal
It has been a clear setback for important reforms and legislations that were to be passed led by the Patents Bill, IRA and 106 other bills.Once again, the economy will suffer because of political compulsions.

There is a likelihood that if the Finance bill does not get approved before May 13 then all the additional taxes collected so far would have to be individually refunded by the government. This would undoubtedly cause fiscal chaos.

SBI MF CIO Ved Prakash Chaturvedi
The markets are extremely volatile and sentiment-driven. It all depends on the new government and in what form they will pass the Finance Bill and other crucial bills. The larger concern is of course the fact that the Lok Sabha is split vertically down the middle with a margin of one vote! Hence, the fate of the new government would also hang in the same way.

Sun F&C MF CIO Gul Teckchandani
What is effectively needed is a government at the Centre, and that too, quickly. Although it is apparent that if the Congress forms a government it would not be a cakewalk as the allies would be just as nagging and demanding as of BJPs. Till the scenario is clear, themarket will remain volatile and lacklustre with a minor downside from current levels.

BSE broker Ajit Sanghvi
Unprecedented wild market swing of BSE intra-day Sensex level 414 points reflects the nation's concern for stability, uncertainty of market-oriented Budget proposals. The market has emerged as a sensitive indicator of turmoil of political undercurrents. In short, the market could be volatile. However, it is unfortunate that when underlying fundamentals and real economy is showing early signs of turnaround with record agricultural growth, improvement of sales of two wheelers, cement and better realisations for steel, aluminium and other commodities, we are faced with such political turmoil.

Network Investment and Fin Amisha Vohra
With the kind of political uncertainty, the upside is limited and based on the political developments. But, how fast the developments unfold is the crucial factor here. Otherwise, the economy will suffer, the businesses will suffer, the`feel-good-factor' which was slowly creeping into the markets will again take the back seat. The markets will at the most consolidate but the investor will take a long time to regain confidence in the markets and economy."

Prudential ICICI Asset MD Ajai Srinivasan
There will be uncertainty and weakness in the markets for the weeks till a new government comes in. Till then, the downside from the current levels is minimal at around 200 points.

Apple MF AVP Malay Sameer
Technically, 3,315 is a strong support level of 200-day moving average. In the event of an alternate government supporting the Finance Bill, the market will flare up. The passage of the Finance Bill is the most crucial matter for the market

Copyright © 1999 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.


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