MUMBAI, Apr 18: Shares will be depressed this week after the collapse of the country's ruling coalition brought closer the prospects of fresh elections, or another fragile alliance taking power."The market will be weak, trading lacklustre and activity stock-specific," said vice-president of equity sales at SSKI Securities, Vetri Subramaniam. "The (benchmark) index will dip to 3,200-3,150 levels before some bargain buying comes in."
The rupee was also expected to come under pressure when trading resumes on Monday but foreign exchange dealers said they expected the central bank to keep a rein on volatility in a largely closed currency market.
The 13-month-old coalition government was voted out of power by parliament on Saturday, putting a big question mark over the fate of the national budget and other important economic bills.
Senior leaders of the main opposition Congress party were due to meet President KR Narayanan on Sunday to discuss the fate of the budget.
The coalition lost the confidencemotion by a margin of just one vote, with 270 votes against it. The benchmark 30-share index of the Bombay Stock Exchange reacted immediately, plunging nearly seven per cent to end Saturday at 3,326.98 points. This wiped out a 6 per cent jump on Friday as hopes of the government's survival rose after some regional parties pledged their support to it. The index lost 3.3 per cent last week.
"We're all dead in the short term," said director of Delhi-based Fund Management, Sanjay Dutt, after the market's fall on Saturday.
Congress, the second largest party in parliament, said it would try and form an alternative administration but some analysts were doubtful it would succeed and, even if it did, whether the government it formed would last.
"The extremely thin margin of the vote outcome shows that the house is split on ideological grounds making the formation of an alternative more difficult," said a fund manager at a local mutual fund.
The political developments have overshadowed the bi-annual credit andmonetary policy scheduled to be unveiled by the central bank on April 20 as well as a string of corporate results due during the week.
Index heavyweights Hindustan Lever Ltd and Reliance Industries Ltd are among the firms that will report their results in the week.
"I see a five to eight per cent downside from here but that should present some buying opportunities," said senior vice-president at SBI Funds Management, Ved Prakash Chaturvedi. "Money may once again flow into the `safe' sectors like software, pharmaceuticals and fast-moving consumer goods."
Copyright © 1999 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.