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Saturday, April 24, 1999

Moody's retains stable outlook 

Paramvir Singh  
Mumbai, Apr 23: Moody's Investor Services on Friday reaffirmed its stable outlook for the country's sovereign rating despite the political turmoil following the fall of the Vajpayee-led coalition government. Moody's is the second international rating agency to reaffirm its outlook on India, after Standard and Poor's reaffirmed its confidence in the country's economic strength earlier this week. S&P had retained its stable outlook saying that the political uncertainty has already been factored in. This type of circumstance was within the boundaries of what we had anticipated when the rating was lowered by two notches in June 1998," Moody's said in a statement on Friday.

Rating agency said it was maintaining the country's `BA2' (speculative element) country ceiling on foreign-currency bonds and notes assigned in June last.

Referring to Congress' efforts to form a Government at the Centre, Moody's said, "Any coalition put together with a representation from smaller or regional parties is unlikely to be muchmore cohesive or long-lasting than the previous one."

"Since the present rating already incorporates the possibility of electoral changes, it will not be affected by which party or parties ultimately form the Government, unless a new Government appears to have a better chance to remain in office for a full term," Moody's said. Earlier, S&P had affirmed its foreign-currency and local-currency issuer credit ratings for the country, proving wrong the doomsayers which predicted ratings downgrade consequent to the fall of the 13-month-old Bharatiya Janata Party-led government which has plunged the country into a fresh round of political instability. S&P had re-affirmed the double-B foreign currency and triple-B local currency long-term issuer credit rating, and the single-B foreign currency and the `A-3' local currency short-term issuer credit rating for the country, an agency release issued in London said. "India's reliance on weak coalition governments is factored in at current ratings levels," said therelease. "Frequent changes of Government are the inevitable consequence of the fragmentation of the country's voting patterns in recent years, the long-term decline of the once-dominant Congress party, and the heightened assertivaness of regional political groups," an S&P release earlier this week stated.

The fall of the Vajpayee administration last Saturday is consistant with the ratings' assumptions and does not, in itself, materially affect the country's creditworthiness, the release added. Listing out the factors constraining India's ratings, S&P put the limited prospects for meaningful fiscal adjustment as the biggest constraint.

Copyright © 1999 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.


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