The next 20 years is the period during which the full impact of globalisation and liberalisation process started in 1991, will come into play in India. Agriculture, being the area where India holds a competitive advantage in the world market, will be expected to take full advantage of the new situation and show a rapid progress. Naturally, it will have a direct bearing on the input industry, especially crop protection.
Population & productivity Currently our population is about 920 million with an annual growth-rate of almost 1.9 per cent. By the year 2020, the population is likely to be about1,,310 million. This projection presumes that the growth rate will fall to 1.2 per cent by 2020.
Based on the population projections till the year 2020, our major objective should be to feed the growing population, at least with the present level of food grains available to each person. This will give us the minimum levels of food grains production we have to achieve in order to retain our self-sufficiency in this important sector. The real challenge lies in bringing about at east 42 per cent increase in our current crop yields. Such an increase in yields, although less than the 69.7 per cent of population growth achieved in the last 25 years, cannot come true without a breakthrough in the technology used in agriculture.
To increase yields in the dry land farming areas where crops like coarse grains, pulses and oilseeds are generally grown.This would mean that along with other inputs, pesticides which will help in increasing the yields in these crops and areas, will be required to be brought into use. A study should be done into the methods of de-bottlenecking crop yields in these crops and areas. Commercial agriculture and horticulture Commercial agriculture will grow in India.
Corproate agriculture/ horticulture will pave the way for large scale farming with organised commercial back up. Export-oriented agriculture - cereals, fruits, vegetables for food processing industry will be the key in commercialisation of agriculture in India. Food processing industry will receive a big boost during this time. Such a high profile food processing industry will require the back up of large-scale corporate agriculture.Large-scale farms will be set up. Modern methods of agriculture will be used.However, the emphasis will be on pesticides with lower residue levels, since export will be subjected to strict monitoring of pesticide residue.
Pesticides to be used on such crops will be decided by the buying country of the processed foods. Hence we will have to go in for the technologically superior products with less residues in the crop.
Another major area where we are likely to hit billions of dollars of business is in floriculture. This industry will reach its peak by the year 2000 and will stay on top for a long time to come. Such large-scale cultivation of flowers will require the appropriate pesticides for use in the cultivation process. Since the value of the flowers will be very high, this segment will require highly effective, safe pesticides which are to be used in very low dosages.
Herbicide usage
Herbicides will play a key role in soil conservation. It has been proved through experiences in the Westthat use of herbicides reduces soil tillage, thereby saving precious topsoil from getting destroyed. This could play an important role in our effort to increase crop yields by 42 per cent in the next 25 years.
All the above factors will cause a great surge in the herbicide consumption in India. The Indian herbicide market now is about 14 per cent of the pesticide market. This is expected to be about 40 per cent of the pesticides market by the year 2020.
Crop economics Due to liberalisation, the price of agricultural commodities will go up substantially. This is possible because of export of agricultural commodities and also because of enhanced domestic demand. TechnologyAgricultural technology used by us in future will be greatly different from what we have been using till now. First, we can expect bio-technology to be the basis for the future crop varieties that we will be growing. Secondly, we will see a more rapid mechanisation of agriculture. High technology will also be sued in monsoon predictions,monitoring of commodity prices, pest surveillance and farmer's education. Increasing literacy levels among farmers, increasing income levels, younger generation taking over farming from the previous generation, will pave the way for a more technology intensive agriculture.
When this happens, naturally, the pesticides used will also have to be of similar technological levels.
Safe and judicious use of pesticides
Pressure from environmentalists and regulatory bodies will increase on the pesticide industry to promote safer products, safer formulations and safe handling of pesticides. A major action area would be to promote safe and judicious use of pesticides among the farmers. Apart from participating in these programmes, the industry should introduce safer products, safer formulation types, safer packaging systems, more effective spray application systems etc.
Other areas
a) Significant importance will be give to better protection of seed, since high quality, expensive seeds will beused in the country. Seed treatment pesticides will be required, which will be of high efficacy, safety and which will help in increasing yields through better protection of the seed.
b) Rodenticide's use in agriculture can increase during the first decade of the next century. This will require use of latest technology-based Rodenticides for large-scale use in agriculture.
Conclusion In the long run, we can meet the food challenges of the 21st century only through high farm yields. Chemical pesticides and other pesticides will play a constructive role in this effort. This will be the only way of preserving the environment and wild life. It is very `naive' on the part of some `experts' to demand complete elimination of chemical pesticides or to forecast a calamity for the country because of the use of chemical pesticides. Instead, all the parties concerned, like research institutes, various organs of the government and the crop protection industry must work together towards creating sustainable agriculturein India with optimal utilisation of the right crop protection chemicals used in the right manner.
Overall, the industry must take up responsibilities in terms of introducing safer products, safer formulation types, safer packaging systems, constructive participation in IPM and propagation of safe and judicious use of pesticides, producing products that can stand up to the international quality standard and investment in R&D. The Industry should ensure that pesticides become an integral part of India's overall effort to create sustainable agriculture and help it in its economic programme launched recently with the aim of unleashing the hidden potential of India and play a dominant role in the world trade and commerce, while bringing about radical changes in the living standards of the people in India.
The author is chairman of Indian Crop Protection Association
Copyright © 1999 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.
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