``We are yet to quantify the increase but we can very well say that it is an upward trend,'' said secretary of the Assam branch of Indian Tea Association (ABITA), Robin Barthakur. He, however, remained cautious. ``The unexpected fall in day temperature these days however may spoil the quality of the tea leaves to some extent,'' he said adding that drought in the preceding months had led to 20 per cent drop in the overall production in the first quarter of the year in the 700 odd tea gardens of upper Assam. The rainfall in the north east this spring was 51 mm, which was less than the worst droughtyears-77 mm in 1986, 96 mm in 1962 and 84 mm in 1960 as against 170 mm in a normal year (November-March).

The ideal rainfall pattern outside the monsoon period for an excellent tea crop is 10 mm in December, 15 mm in January, 70 mm in February, 100 mm in March and 150 mm in April. However, the rains started only from the second week of April.

According to tea market sources, the yield in March in the region was estimated to be 20 to 25 per cent lower than the normal which is 15 million kg while the April crop is 30 to 33 per cent lower than the normal which is 25 million kg. However, Assam Tea Planters' Association (ATPA) chairman Prabhat Bezbaruah put the estimated loss of the tea gardens at much higher.

He said in the first quarter of the year the tea production of Assam had declined by 75 per cent while the overall decline in the country was about 50 per cent. Similar figure were also quoted by ABITA secretary Robin Barthakur who put the damage in the category to 80-90 per cent.