New Delhi, June 6: Over 75 per cent of corporate India is confident of an economic turnaround within the next six months, despite tensions breaking between India and Pakistan, a survey conducted by an apex chamber has revealed. A majority of the respondents said business sentiment had shown a considerable improvement this year, with vastly improved macro economic fundamentals in the latest Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (Ficci) survey on business confidence.The Ficci report mentions tensions in Kargil, political turmoil and a split in the Congress as important events which occurred during the last three weeks of May, a period over which the survey was conducted. Among the sectors in which the current slowdown would get reversed before the year end were consumer goods, services, automobiles, steel, commodities, chemicals and pharmaceuticals, as per the survey.
"The economy is already on the turnaround track, end of the current recession is imminent," said respondents from chemicalsand commodities sectors.
The vastly improved economic outlook of Indian corporates is in sharp contrast to that expressed during the previous such survey Ficci conducted in December last year.
Six months back, an overwhelming 89 per cent of corporate chiefs were uncertain of a recovery trend setting in anytime before fiscal 2000-2001.
Among the parameters which perceptibly improved since December last were interest rates, GDP growth rate, inflation and industrial growth rate expectations.
"There has been a considerable improvement in business sentiment this year. Interest rates have come down to 12 from 14 per cent; GDP has improved to 5.5 per cent while industrial growth rate expectations have buoyed to four per cent," the survey findings reveal.
Inflation rate has also improved from 7 per cent in the last survey to 5.5 per cent now, Ficci said. Opining over the macro economic issues, majority of survey respondents said these would hold steady or improve in the near term.
They felt that theinflation rate would be contained at around 5 per cent and the rupee exchange rate would hold at the present level with a marginal slide towards Rs 45 per greenback, Ficci said.
Coming to reasons for the current and last two years' slowdown, industry leaders pinpointed demand-side bottlenecks, the political scenario, inadequate infrastructure and low public expenditure, respectively as contributing factors. Topping the reasons for continuing recessionary trends were demand-side bottlenecks, with 34 per cent of the corporate leaders polled, listing this as the single largest reason. Fluid political situation, infrastructural bottlenecks and low public expenditure emerged as the four most important internal factors contributing to recession, the Ficci survey said.
Coming to the external factors which hindered economic growth, slowdown in international trade emerged as the single most important factor, with an overwhelming 65 per cent of all the respondents pinpointing this. In another significant viewpoint,60 per cent of corporate India felt that measures announced in this year's Union budget might not prove effective enough for kickstarting the economy in the short run.
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